833
FXUS64 KBRO 260857
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
357 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The passage of a cold front this morning will bring drier conditions
and gusty winds this afternoon, with a minor impact on temperatures.
High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 80s
to low 90s, with low temperatures tonight falling to the upper 60s
to low 70s. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures are expected to
be back to the low to mid 90s.

Stronger winds over the coastal waters will result in greater wave
heights. Combined with the arrival of long period swell from
Hurricane Helene in the Eastern Gulf, these greater wave heights are
expected to create hazardous beach conditions. A high risk of rip
currents are expected through the period, with minor coastal
flooding possible as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The forecast period starts with a large 500mb low centered over the
Middle Tennessee River Valley moving northeast over the Appalachians
through the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds over the Four
Corners. As the 500mb ridge expands eastward, much drier air and
increased subsidence will lead to dry weather through the weekend.
Gulf moisture may begin to increase across the area early next week.
The GFS is more robust with PWATs reaching 2.2 inches by Monday
morning, while the ECMWF paints much lower PWATs across the area
and keeps the bulk of the deeper moisture well offshore. Will
lean towards the NBM and mention some low end rain chances Monday
into Tuesday.

An enhanced rip current risk and minor coastal flooding will be
possible at beaches along the Lower Texas Coast Friday night into
Saturday. Near to above normal high temperatures will prevail
through the period with highs in the low to mid 90s, except for the
80s at the beaches. Drier air will keep heat indices below 100
degrees and will support a minor heat risk through the period.
Overnight lows will feel rather comfortable with below normal
temperatures and slightly drier air expected through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving south, and expected
to move through MFE before sunrise. Conditions at MFE may briefly
fall to MVFR levels as the storms move through. Gusty winds are
expected to pick up out of the north this afternoon before
becoming light and variable again this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Today through Friday...Gusty winds are expected in the wake of this
mornings cold front, resulting in building seas this afternoon.
Additionally,  Hurricane Helene is currently traversing the Eastern
Gulf, headed towards the Florida coast. Long period swell generated
by the hurricane is expected to begin arriving along the Lower Texas
Coast this afternoon, further enhancing wave heights. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines will be needed for the Laguna
Madre and nearshore Gulf waters today, and a Small Craft Advisory
will be needed for the offshore Gulf waters through Friday
afternoon.

Friday night through Tuesday...Swell from Helene will continue to
lead to elevated seas on the Gulf waters Friday night. Therefore,
Small Craft Exercise Should Caution headlines may be needed Friday
night for the Gulf waters. Seas are expected to subside over the
weekend, with favorable conditions prevailing through the remainder
of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  71  90  71 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  67  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  72  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  77  87  77 /  20   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  71  89  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through late
     Friday night for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...60-BE