Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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063 FXUS64 KBRO 300545 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1245 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This Afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A generally pleasant afternoon is shaping up across Deep South Texas in wake of last night`s showers and thunderstorms. Most areas are observing temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s, with dew points running around 3-10 degrees lower than the past few days. While still mildly warm with heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, it`s not quite the intense heat we`ve had the last week or so. In addition to the lower temperatures, last night`s convection also scoured out the haze aloft, allowing for fair to moderate air quality today. This will be short lived, however, as winds gradually return to the southeast and allow for a steady increase in humidity once again. Low clouds will develop late this evening from east to west as low level flow transports Gulf moisture overhead. This will also result in the return of mild low temperatures, ranging from the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to around or just below 80 degrees closer to the coast. There are low rain chances (20% or less) mainly across the Northern Ranchlands tonight. Overall, not expecting much in terms of coverage, but an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Thursday will be another seasonably warm and breezy day as Deep South Texas remains along the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper level ridge over Mexico. Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s for most of the region, with a few areas reaching 100 degrees across the Upper RGV and Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will be slightly higher tomorrow afternoon, with a few areas reaching 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory may be needed, but heat indices will likely remain just below criteria. South to southeast winds around 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20-25 MPH are expected by mid morning to early afternoon, with the highest winds/wind gusts along the immediate coast. Have maintained a rain-free forecast for Thursday and Thursday night, but we`ll have to keep an eye on the influence of embedded disturbances within northwesterly flow aloft which could result in thunderstorms developing to our north and west. Otherwise, another mild and cloud night is expected tomorrow night with lows ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: *Above normal high and low temperatures *Best chance for rain on Saturday The above normal temperature will continue through the long term forecast period. The mid-level ridge looks to continue to dominate the weather patterns for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As such the high temperatures are going to be in the range of upper 90s along the coast and the barrier island to the triple digits for the rest of the region. With surface winds staying out of the southeast for the long term forecast period, this will transport more humid hot air into the area. As such, the heat indices for the long term forecast period are expected to be in the range of 105 to 114. However, the need for Heat Advisories seems to have trended down just a bit with this latest model analysis. The higher heat indices do not seem to last long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Friday through Tuesday at this point. However, an SPS for the high heat indices will still be needed. While the experimental HeatRisk tool does show plenty of major heat risk for those days, there are only a smaller region of extreme on those days. However, by Tuesday, the HeatRisk tool has a large area of extreme. Currently, Wednesday, seems to have the largest chance for needing a Heat Advisory. Further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor this. Finally, the rain chances still look to be very low for most of the long term forecast period. As the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere are still pretty dry. However, by Saturday, the middle levels of the atmosphere will start to become a bit more moist, and a shortwave could help some showers and thunderstorms fire up along the Sierra Madre and move into the region. A tightening pressure is expected for the weekend and Monday that will enhance the winds in the region, but seems to be not as strong as before to require a Wind Advisory. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Mostly clear skies and light east-southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate some low MVFR cloud decks west and south of the aerodromes. Low clouds/ceilings are expected to increase over the region through the overnight hours. Will mention a TEMPO at BRO and MFE between 07-10Z for brief MVFR ceilings. MVFR conditions, including some patchy fog, will be possible around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to return mid to late morning as southeast winds increase, some wind gusts around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Tonight through Thursday night...Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail tonight. Increasing winds in response to an enhanced pressure gradient will result in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters Thursday afternoon and evening. Low rain chances exist tomorrow. Friday through next Wednesday...Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas thanks to a locally enhanced pressure gradient will generate adverse conditions that will mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution through next Wednesday. A low-end Small Craft Advisory cannot be ruled out either. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 95 82 95 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 80 97 80 97 / 10 0 20 10 MCALLEN 81 99 82 99 / 10 0 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 80 101 / 10 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 87 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 93 81 92 / 10 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22-Garcia LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...63-KC