Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
938 FXUS65 KBYZ 261454 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 854 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming breezy behind a dry cold front today. && .UPDATE... Satellite imagery shows a Pacific shortwave moving west-to-east thru central MT, with only scattered mid-high clouds eking into our forecast area. Surface analysis shows a cold front into our west, and winds from Big Timber to Harlowton are starting to respond w/ increasing westerly winds. The front will progress eastward and reach southeast MT by early afternoon. NW-N winds will be breezy behind the front w/ widespread 20-35 mph gusts. The combination of the wind along with still hot temps and sub-20% humidity will be problematic with regard to fire weather, so current Red Flag Warning for Sheridan and southeast MT looks to be on track. Instability along the trof axis may generate some mid cloud and perhaps virga a bit later today, but the air mass is quite dry so no real chance of precip today. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Through Friday night... Satellite imagery shows a poorly organized trough moving inland along the Pacific NW coast with an associated cloud leaf and showers moving through Idaho into western Montana. This system will move across Montana today, with most of the energy up in Canada we do not expect any precipitation, but generally wind impacts. Look for an initial wind shift during the morning with southwest winds turning west, then becoming north/northwest in the afternoon with a secondary push of cooler air. Some areas may see gusts flirt with 30 mph at times today, especially near the foothills. The atmospheric column looks to dry to support any measurable precipitation, though some high based virga is possible here and there over the central zones. Aided by downslope flow, we should still see temps into the 80s at most locations today despite the cool frontal passage, and maybe even approach 90 degrees in the southeast. Winds will calm down tonight with lows in the 40s. Nothing to remarkable about Friday. High pressure aloft will prevail to our south with weak zonal to anti-cyclonic flow over our region. Highs will remain well above normal in the lower to mid 80s. Red Flag Warning remains in place for zones 131 (Ashland Ranger District & Northern Cheyenne) and 274 (Sheridan Co) as well as zone 133 (Sioux Ranger District) in southeast Montana and northwest South Dakota through 600 PM. We expect temps in the mid 80s to around 90F, RHs 15-20% and W-NW winds gusting to 30 mph in these areas. Fuels in these locations still appear to be primed for fire starts (due to recent man made fires). BT Saturday through Thursday... The weekend will be warm and dry, with breezy conditions on Sunday, as upper ridging gives way to upper troughing. Hot Dry Windy highlights Sunday as a possible fire weather day, so will need to keep an eye on this period. Temps could reach the 90s again on Sunday, with NBM showing a 30% chance of reaching 90 degrees in KBIL to a 98% chance in KSHR. These temps will approach or possibly exceed record highs. Upper trough moves across the area on Monday. Deterministic models showed a strong cold frontal passage Sun. night, with a back door cold front moving into the area on Monday. Breezy conditions continue through Monday, but Monday will be much cooler with highs in the 60s, which will help with fire weather concerns. Other than a slight (20%) chance of showers over the northern tier of the forecast area Sun. evening, conditions will be dry through Monday. Ensembles patterns were in disagreement for Tuesday and ranged from a trough to a ridge. Zonal flow or ridging was progged for Wednesday. NBM was dry with around normal temps both days. Ridging or NW flow were in the ensembles on Thursday. Other than a slight chance of showers W of KBIL Wed. night, with possible mountain snow showers, the forecast remained dry. Temps will be near normal on Wed. with cooler conditions Thursday. Arthur && .AVIATION... Dry Pacific cold front will push across the area today, bringing breezy west then northwest winds in the late morning and afternoon. Expect widespread 20-30 knot gusts. Winds will decrease quickly after sunset. Otherwise, VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 050/084 051/083 053/088 047/062 040/074 048/072 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/U 10/U 00/U LVM 080 046/084 047/085 052/086 038/064 037/076 044/072 0/N 00/U 00/U 00/N 11/U 10/U 01/U HDN 086 047/085 048/086 050/092 045/063 037/075 044/073 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U MLS 083 048/084 052/087 055/090 048/061 039/069 046/069 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U 4BQ 091 049/087 052/089 059/094 050/062 039/072 046/072 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U BHK 086 044/086 049/088 054/090 045/063 035/068 042/069 0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 10/B 00/U SHR 091 046/087 050/089 052/094 044/064 035/076 042/075 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 131-133. WY...Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 274. && $$ weather.gov/billings