Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
500 FXUS65 KBYZ 210821 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 221 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Sunday night... Weak cyclonic flow aloft will prevail today, but without much forcing or deeper moisture, no precipitation is expected. Look for some low clouds in the east early, otherwise skies will be mostly sunny by afternoon. With a cooler air mass in place highs today will be in the lower 60s with 40s in the high country. Weak ridging Saturday night will give way to more modest height falls Sunday as another weather system tracks across Canada with prefrontal warming boosting highs Sunday back into the lower/mid 70s. The Canadian system will drag another front across the high plains and our area Sunday night. This feature looks mainly dry, but the EC is indicating a chance of light showers in our western zones late Sunday night into Monday, so we will carry some low Pops in the Park County, Crazies region. BT Monday through Friday... An upper trough and cold front will move across the Northern Rockies on Monday. Ahead of this system, high temperatures will be around normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s. The chance for precipitation increase with frontal passage (around midday), though models still disagree on the extent of this increase. The deterministic ECMWF continues to lead the way with moisture and the chance for precip, while the GFS, Canadian, and NAM are much more bullish. Nevertheless, the current NBM forecast is leaning on the EC run, resulting in a low to moderate (15-50%, best chance in the western areas) chance for showers. Light, high elevation snowfall will also be possible with this system, with snow levels around 10kft. Expect winds to increase from the WNW, with gusts in the 10s-20s mph into Tuesday morning. There is high confidence among ensemble members that upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the Mountain West, Tuesday. Normal to slightly above normal temperatures (70s to low 80s) and dry conditions will be felt through Friday. Confidence in the next weather pattern is low, next Friday and Saturday. Current cluster analysis generally depicts zonal flow from the WSW, while several ensembles and deterministic`s are showing an upper trough developing in the PNW. The current forecast has temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s to low 70s next weekend. Keep an eye out for changes in the forecast if you have plans later in the week. Matos && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period. Patchy areas of MVFR due to low cloud bases are possible this morning, in the east. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061 040/073 051/072 047/075 050/083 054/082 051/080 0/U 00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 063 034/075 043/070 042/077 047/083 049/081 046/079 0/U 00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 00/U HDN 062 035/074 045/072 042/076 046/085 050/083 049/082 0/U 00/U 02/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 062 039/072 047/072 044/075 048/083 052/081 050/082 0/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 061 037/074 045/071 044/074 047/083 052/083 051/084 0/B 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 063 036/071 043/071 042/074 045/082 050/081 048/082 0/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 063 033/075 043/070 040/075 044/085 049/085 048/084 0/B 00/U 03/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings