Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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683 FXUS61 KCAR 260316 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1116 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach tonight, cross the region Thursday, then exit across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 11:15 PM Update...The sky is cloudy. A few spotty showers can be seen approaching the western edge of our area. Increased the temps around a degree in some area through late evening with the clouds preventing much cooling. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Previous discussion... High pressure exits across the Maritimes tonight, while low pressure lifting north across Quebec province draws a warm/occluded front toward western New England. Expect isolated/scattered showers early tonight, with a steadier rain then starting to develop overnight in advance of the approaching system. The occluded front approaches western portions of the forecast area later Thursday. Aloft, the supporting closed upper low will also approach. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.50 inches Thursday. A steady rain will develop across the entire forecast area Thursday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 across the forecast area. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to upper 50s north, to the upper 50s to lower 60s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low pressure system will continue to track southeast through the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday morning. Stratiform rain will begin to taper off, becoming showery into the day on Friday as forcing over the area weakens and drier air begins to fill in behind the system. Average temperatures will return to the area with highs in the lower 60s across the north and mid to upper 60s Downeast. Into the day on Saturday, recent guidance is hinting at the chance for an inverted trough to swing back into the forecast area from the departing area of low pressure. Combined with lingering mid level moisture and diurnal heating, scattered rain showers are possible Saturday afternoon, especially in the north and down into northern Washington County: closer to the low center and also combined with upslope flow in northerly winds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure should begin to build in through the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Average temperatures are likely through this time period along with another period of dry weather. As skies begin to clear into early next week, temperatures could drop towards the 30s across the north thanks to surface decoupling Monday night. A front may begin to approach the area from the west on Wednesday, but recent guidance trends suggest the front will approach more slowly, and given the strength of the ridge that may be in place through the first part of the week, a blocking pattern is the mostly likely outcome such that the front does not arrive until much later in the week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR early tonight with isolated to scattered showers. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, overnight with a steadier rain developing. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, Thursday with rain and patchy fog. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Southeast/south winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday. SHORT TERM: Thurs night: IFR likely across all terminals, potentially improving towards MVFR as rain decreases. SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Fri: MVFR north, conditions improving to VFR at Downeast terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts. Fri night: Conditions improving to VFR across all terminals. N wind around 5 kts. Sat: Mostly VFR. Brief -SHRA possible across northern terminals. N wind. Winds light and variable. Saturday night...VFR conditions across all terminals, though brief IFR possible at any terminals which saw rain on Sat. Winds light and variable. Sun - Mon: VFR across all terminals. Winds NW to N. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through Thursday. A slight chance of rain later tonight. Rain developing with patchy fog Thursday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA criteria through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds may briefly gust to around 20 kts Thursday night. Rain and patchy fog could limit visibility Thursday night into early Friday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Norcross/AStrauser Marine...Norcross/AStrauser