Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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623 FXUS64 KCRP 251735 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The short term is continuing to remain on track from the previous forecast. A mid to upper level trough is expected to continue digging to south as it progresses eastwards. This will send a cold front through the region this evening providing enough lift for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what we seen yesterday. Behind this front, we will dry out bringing slightly pleasant conditions for the remainder of the short term. Highs Thursday will be a tad cooler with upper 80s to lower 90s across the CWA with lows in the upper 60s by Thursday night. Tropical Storm Helene developed out in the Gulf yesterday and is forecasted to become a major hurricane. This is expected to cause some impacts to South Texas like increased seas, the rip current risk, as well as causing some hazardous marine conditions Thursday. The increased seas will likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for portions of our Gulf waters tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding late this week as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Gulf Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate the forecast through the middle of next week. Highs will generally range from 85 along the coast to around 95 degrees out west. Much drier air will keep us a lot more comfortable, even with our sunny skies and warm temperatures, with heat index values below 100 (finally!). Low temperatures will even dip into the 60s, leading to some pleasant early mornings. The only significant weather during the long term forecast will be Tropical Storm Helene. TS Helene is expected to become a hurricane some time today as it approaches the Yucatan. It could become a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida Big Bend. While TS Helene is not expected to directly impact the Middle Texas Coast, long period swell will arrive late this week, increasing the risk of rip currents, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Generally VFR conditions will persist through the cycle at all terminals. The only exception will be a brief window between 21Z and 03Z this afternoon when MVFR conditions may impact area sites ahead and along an advancing frontal boundary. The convective activity will mainly affect the eastern terminals, but cannot be fully ruled out across the western ones. Rainfall probabilities across the east are at 30-40%, while out west are below 25%. Once the front moves by early Thursday, winds are forecast to become gusty out of the north and northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Winds will remain mostly weak today before becoming moderate and shifting north by Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. This could lead to brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. A moderate northerly wind will continue on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger over the coastal waters through Thursday morning before drier air moves into the region. As Tropical Storm Helene moves north across the Gulf, we could see hazardous marine conditions over the weekend as increased swells arrive. For updates on tropical cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 71 88 67 / 20 20 10 0 Victoria 96 69 91 62 / 40 10 0 0 Laredo 97 71 91 67 / 20 20 0 0 Alice 96 71 91 65 / 30 20 10 0 Rockport 94 73 92 70 / 30 30 10 0 Cotulla 98 69 93 65 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 94 71 89 66 / 30 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 75 87 73 / 20 30 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday morning for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...ANM/88