Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
243 FXUS64 KCRP 242038 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues into Saturday. There`s not much change to report since the previous forecast. Quasi-zonal flow will persist for the rest of today, as a weak upper ridge sets in place. Expect well above normal temperatures and dew points tonight and tomorrow, leading to elevated heat indices across South Texas. As was the case yesterday, minimum heat indices will stay in the low 80s to low 90s tonight, resulting in poor overnight heat recovery. Consequently, the current Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning have been extended through 7 AM tomorrow. Through we will not be meeting our official criteria for Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings, extending these products tonight helps us emphasize the increased risk of heat illness overnight. Tomorrow`s conditions will be similar to today`s. High temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s along the coast to the upper 90s and 100s west of HWY-77. With dew point temperatures forecasted between 75-80 degF, heat indices will easily meet Heat Advisory (110 degF or higher) or Excessive Heat Warning (115 degF or higher) criteria. Although we are confident about the need for another Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow, we will not issue them yet to allow the current ones to expire. Bottom line, significant to extreme heat-related risks will continue tomorrow and into the evening. As I`m sure many of you are planning to spend this holiday weekend outdoors, please remember to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 - Major to extreme heat related impacts Sunday/Monday. - Isolated thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. Continue to expect upper disturbances to move across nearly all of the CONUS during the period, with the CWA remaining under the influence of an upper high pressure system. With respect to the possibility of upper disturbances forcing a frontal boundary into the CWA, both the GFS and ECMWF move a boundary into North Central Texas Sunday night. The boundary becomes somewhat diffuse Monday, yet appears to remain north of the CWA Monday/Monday night before dissipating. Concur with the NBM with respect to the prediction of isolated convection Monday/Tuesday evening near the Rio Grande (the GFS/ECMWF predict low CIN values there). Isolated convection predicted for Wednesday/Thursday over the CWA likely associated with the proximity of upper jet dynamics (GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs). With respect to the heat, PWAT values reach 2 inches (99th percentile for May) over much of the CWA Sunday/Monday, which will likely result in Excessive Heat Warning conditions (with Heat Index values 115F or greater) over much of the CWA Sunday/Monday, consistent with NBM output. The NBM predicts slightly lower maximum temperatures Tuesday through Thursday over the CWA (the deterministic GFS/ECMWF predict slightly lower 1000-500mb thickness values), possibly due to greater cloud cover associated with the proximity of upper jet dynamics Saturday through Monday (deterministic GFS/ECWMF). Also, the NBM lowers afternoon surface dew points slightly over the Coastal Plains. Thus, concur with the lower maximum Heat Index values based on the NBM for Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR ceilings are currently in place across all TAF sites with MVFR visibilities in select terminals due to lingering haze. VFR ceilings should continue through the reminder of the afternoon before transitioning to a mix of VFR and MVFR by the evening hours. Overnight, mostly MVFR conditions across South Texas with a couple TEMPO groups for ALI and VCT for brief periods of IFR visibilities and ceilings, respectively. By late morning, VFR ceilings should return with haze continuing to reduce visibilities across several terminals. Winds will be gusty once again through evening, especially for the eastern sites, before dropping down by the early overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through Saturday. In response to the persistent progressive pattern over much of the CONUS during the Sunday through Friday period, persistent, predominately moderate onshore flow, will persist during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 81 109 81 108 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 78 100 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 81 92 80 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 81 107 81 106 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 97 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 82 92 82 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ229-230- 239>243. Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ232-244-342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS/98 LONG TERM....WC/87 AVIATION...KRS/98