Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
683 FXUS64 KCRP 300246 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 946 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Threat for any precipitation looks minimal overnight given the latest radar/satellite trends. Most of the storms northeast of Victoria have dissipated with the loss of heating. The convective cells in NE Mexico are also expected to dissipate before reaching our NW Counties. That said a weak shortwave is progged to move into South Texas tonight and there is considerable elevated instability, thus kept mention of low (10-15%) Pops. Otherwise, should be a quiet muggy night with light SE winds. Expect lows ranging from the mid 70s inland to near 80 coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: - A major risk of heat related impacts on Thursday - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Thursday High pressure remains in control over South Texas through Thursday; however, a ripple in the flow will move just to the north of our area. While most of the support for convection will stay north, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Thoughts are that the environment probably will not get a chance to rebound as much as is necessary for convection to become severe over most of the area, though a Marginal risk of severe weather over the Victoria Crossroads in effect for tonight. The temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for Thursday, with highs in the 90s along the coast and into the low 100s over the Brush Country. Moisture will be a little higher for Thursday, so heat index values will be between 110-114. A Heat Advisory will be necessary for Thursday over the southern Coastal Bend and over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Guidance has been just a degree or two low over the last week, so there could be some time periods where heat index values reach 115 or greater. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat related impacts continue this weekend, increasing to major to extreme through the middle of next week. - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night The long-term forecast remains on track with the mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico persisting with several disturbances moved across the periphery. Toward the end of the work week, an upper- level disturbance will move eastward across TX. This, along with near normal PWAT`s of 1.50-1.60", CAPE values of 2,500-3,500 J/kg, and shear around 40kts (according to the GEFS mean ensemble) could lead to another severe weather threat. As a result SPC has placed our northern counties in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. Hot and muggy conditions continue with low to moderate thunderstorm chances through Friday night with chances diminishing Saturday. Afternoon highs will stay in the 90-105 degree range for the period. Heat indices will hover between 105-109 over the weekend, but heat advisory (110-115) conditions will be possible on Friday and again Monday and Tuesday with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the middle of next week. and into next week In addition to the heat, haze from fires down in Mexico continue to impact our area which can result in respiratory issues, especially for sensitive groups. Please take precautions to protect yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to develop this evening and late tonight, then persist into the early morning hours when VFR conditions will return. Hazy skies are still expected as fires burn well to our south, but visibility will generally remain VFR with only brief periods of MVFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, particularly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through early next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong over the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 92 80 93 / 10 10 20 20 Victoria 77 91 77 92 / 10 40 20 30 Laredo 79 101 78 102 / 20 10 10 10 Alice 78 96 79 97 / 20 10 20 20 Rockport 81 90 80 90 / 10 20 20 20 Cotulla 79 100 78 100 / 20 10 20 10 Kingsville 80 95 80 95 / 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 88 82 87 / 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM/75 LONG TERM....JM/75 AVIATION...JM/75