414
FXUS63 KDVN 261715
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Monday followed by a brief
  cool down.

- Remnants of Helene will miss most if not all of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The light winds and clear skies will bring the risk of another round
of patchy fog through sunrise. Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions
will be seen today and tonight with above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Friday through Monday
Assessment...high confidence on above normal temperatures. Low
confidence regarding rain chances.

As expected, the trend with Helene`s remnants is to be a bit further
south and east. Helene`s remnants will be absorbed by the cut off
low with the surface low stalling south southeast of Paducah, KY
before slowly moving east. As such, it appears that areas west of a
Princeton, IL to Keokuk, IA line will remain dry. Areas east of this
line `might` see some rain but probabilities of dry versus rain
currently look to be 85/15. Once Helene makes landfall and is
sampled by the more dense land observing networks, a more abrupt
shift to the east with the rain chances is expected.

The deterministic GFS and all GEFS members keep the entire area dry.
The ICON model and ICON-EPS suggests the potential for some 15% pops
late Friday night through Saturday evening east of a Sterling, IL to
Keokuk, IA line.

The CMC deterministic run keeps the entire area dry while some
members of the CMCE suggest 20% pops over eastern Bureau and Putnam
counties late Friday night through Saturday night.

The ECMWF deterministic run brings a risk of rain as far west as a
Freeport, IL to Keokuk, IA line late Friday night through Sunday.
Most members of the EPS are dry but a few members bring a risk of
rain as far west as a Sterling, IL to Keokuk, IA line.

So, the model consensus is dry through Friday evening. After that
there is a 20-30 percent chance of rain east of a Memphis, MO to
Sterling, IL line late Friday night that decreases to a 20 percent
chance Saturday/Saturday night.

Sunday the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of rain east of a
Memphis, MO to Freeport, IL line. This further north and west shift
can be attributed to the ECMWF/EPS.

Sunday night/Monday the model consensus has mainly dry conditions
for the entire area.

Monday night through Wednesday
Assessment...medium to high confidence on cooler temperatures. Low
confidence for any rain.

The global models vary slightly in timing but agree that a strong
cold front will sweep through the area Monday night and usher in
cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

The question is will there be any rain with the said front. Moisture
is lacking so the prospects of dry conditions with the frontal
passage appear good. However, a few rogue showers cannot be fully
ruled out but any coverage would be 10 percent at best.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds move
in later in the period as winds increase locally. Some gusts
near 30kts are possible late in the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Gibbs