Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
896 ACUS02 KWNS 230529 SWODY2 SPC AC 230528 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians... A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line segments possible. Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur, damaging gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 $$