153
FXUS63 KEAX 311717
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand east
today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night
  through Tuesday night. Additional heavy rain are possible with
  these storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Remnants of an MCV remain across east central KS. Convection
associated with this disturbance has showed some signs of weakening
and CAMs suggest the trend may continue through 12-15Z largely
remaining across eastern Kansas and potentially retrograding back to
the west as it decays.

Upper trough across the northern Rockies has lifted northeast into
central Canada.  A fragment of the upper trough has migrated south
but remains phased with the trough and is expected to move through
the central US today.  Very weakly unstable moisture laden
environment remains across the region leading to instability
showers/thunderstorms developing ahead of this wave.  Weak mid level
flow and precipitable water values near 1.5" could lead to locally
heavy rainfall. This threat is not expected to be widespread enough
to lead to the issuance of a watch.  Severe weather is not expected
today with limited instability and shear.

As trough lifts north along the Mississippi Valley could see the
potential of wrap around showers across central into eastern
Missouri.  Easterly flow develops tonight as weak area of high
pressure develops across the Northern Plains and there is the
potential for stratus development. HRRR and RAP are a bit more
aggressive compared to deterministic solutions with fog development
Saturday morning across eastern Kansas.

Any fog/stratus is expected to gradually burn off Saturday morning
as high pressure builds into the region leading to drier conditions.
 However, this trend does not last as a series of disturbances are
expected Sunday night through the first half of next week.  Sunday
night a modest low level jet develops.  With decent mid level lapse
rates, stronger storms would have the potential to produce hail,
though wind shear looks to be somewhat limiting (bulk shear 20-25
knots).
Southerly winds draw heat and humidity into the region Monday into
Tuesday.  Could see heat indicies approach 90 F Tuesday ahead of a
cold front associated with a sizable trough across the northern US
sweeps through the region.  Large upper level ridge builds across
the western US on the backside of this system, leading to a more
significant warming trend late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions with scattered showers lingering through the first
few hours of the TAF period. Overcast skies continue through the
afternoon hours into the overnight before IFR ceilings are expected
over the terminals Saturday morning. Once the IFR ceilings arrive,
they are expected to persist into the late morning hours before
giving way MVFR ceilings around 15Z. Winds will be out of the
southeast around 5-7 knots Friday afternoon with occasional wind
gusts expected throughout. A northwesterly shift in the winds are
expected early Saturday morning.



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Hayes