Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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972 FXUS64 KEPZ 201727 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1127 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for areas along and east of the Rio Grande this afternoon and evening. It will be lightly breezy this afternoon with warm above normal temperatures area wide. Dry conditions, breezy conditions and cooler temperatures will occur this weekend. An uncertain weather pattern will occur next week with a slight chance of rain showers and a few thunderstorms possible from Tuesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 For today, a deepening Pacific low pressure system on west coast has begun to pull up subtropical moisture out ahead of it over New Mexico. The broad plume of moisture streaming into the area is further west and more spread out than previously forecast with with rain chances now possible from the Rio Grande valley and eastward. As the low approaches the area the moisture plume will become more concentrated and will start to drift more to the east over the next 24 hours. The moisture surge has already increased cloudiness over the region with rain showers and a few thunderstorms expected to develop for areas along and east of the Rio Grande as the day progresses. The best chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will be the Sacramento Mountains where rain chances are at 60 percent. Rain chances will drop to to 30 percent or less for lowland areas mainly south and away from the mountains. Rain chances will diminish the further west you go, eventually being zero west of the river. Along with a chance of rain, some breeziness in the afternoon and warm above normal temperatures are expected to occur. Chances for rain will continue into tonight for areas east of the Rio Grande but will gradually diminish with time as the plume of moisture exits the region to the east as the Pacific low lifts out of the area to the northeast. Conditions will turn dry and cooler on Saturday as the low moves into the Four Corners area and eventually into the Central Rockies. West flow along the south side of the Pacific will push moisture out of the area and and bring in a cooler and drier air mass to the area. Breezy to near windy conditions will occur area wide on Saturday, but will diminish overnight. By Sunday the low ill move into the Plains with dry conditions under a west flow aloft continuing. Winds will not be as strong on Sunday. Weather conditions for Monday are expected to be mostly dry with seasonal temperatures with just the slightest chance for precipitation or eastern areas by Monday afternoon. The weather outlook for next week remains uncertain as forecast models struggle to focus on a single solution to the development and track of deep low pressure trough over a large part of the country. Locally, two scenarios are possible, A mostly dry pattern that has high pressure over the western part of the country keeping the region dry and moisture free. The other scenario has the trough developing into a closed low that drops down over the the state and increases chances for rain each day next week. As a result, the national model blend has begun to incorporate at least a slight chance of precipitation each day next week. This is an uncertain low confidence forecast that will keep the weather outlook unsettled in the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VMC expected to prevail through forecast period. Southwest flow aloft with continued dry weather across SW NM. Scattered TSRA across south-central NM and W TX, mostly east of El Paso between the hours 22-04Z this evening. Skies generally SCT-BKN090 SCT- BKN120 with rain chances east of US-54. Surface winds 210-240 at 10-15 knots this afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots possible at KTCS. Lingering rain chances overnight, but terminals should remain VMC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Very warm temperatures with some breezy southwest winds will happen again today, however increasing moisture will increase minimum RH values into the 20 to 30 percent range as well as increase cloudiness with showers and a few thunderstorms likely for Sacramento Mountains this afternoon into this evening. Lower elevations from the Rio Grande valley eastward will see between a 20 to 30 percent chance rain with a few thunderstorms. Further to the west rain chances are less likely for the Gila and Bootheel regions of Southwest New Mexico today and tonight. Rain if it occurs will be light and spotty, except near thunderstorms where higher amounts of rain are expected. The region will dry out for the weekend as a Pacific low pressure system pushes moisture to the east out of the region. Breezy to near windy conditions will be possible. Cooler temperatures will allow min RH values to remain above critical thresholds. Sunday will be less breezy than Saturday. The weather pattern becomes more uncertain next week with a possible return of moisture and a slight chance rain. Best chances for rain will be for areas east of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal values and winds may not be as strong during the week. Vent rates will be very good to excellent Today and Saturday but will drop to fair to good for next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 97 72 93 63 / 20 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 91 67 89 59 / 40 50 20 10 Las Cruces 94 67 89 55 / 10 20 10 0 Alamogordo 93 66 89 54 / 30 30 20 0 Cloudcroft 70 49 66 40 / 50 40 30 0 Truth or Consequences 92 63 84 54 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 84 54 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 94 61 87 51 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 91 58 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 94 72 91 62 / 20 20 10 0 Dell City 96 68 94 59 / 30 50 20 0 Fort Hancock 99 70 96 62 / 40 50 10 10 Loma Linda 88 65 85 57 / 30 40 10 0 Fabens 96 70 93 59 / 20 30 10 0 Santa Teresa 92 68 89 56 / 20 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 93 70 89 59 / 20 20 10 0 Jornada Range 92 67 87 53 / 20 20 10 0 Hatch 94 66 88 52 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 93 65 89 55 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 91 66 88 54 / 30 30 20 0 Mayhill 82 54 79 45 / 50 40 30 0 Mescalero 81 54 77 44 / 50 50 30 0 Timberon 79 52 76 44 / 40 40 30 0 Winston 84 50 76 42 / 10 10 10 0 Hillsboro 91 59 83 50 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 91 63 85 51 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 83 48 73 41 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 87 54 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 91 51 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 83 53 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 87 57 79 49 / 10 10 0 0 Animas 91 58 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 91 57 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 91 56 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 84 55 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt