810
FXUS64 KEPZ 251710
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1110 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Quiet and dry weather conditions with hot temperatures will be the
theme through the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will be
10-15 degrees above average. The hottest day will be Friday where
the high temperature in El Paso could rival the daily record of
98 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages with quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures across
far west TX and southern NM over the next few days.

Strengthening high pressure a aloft will be the main feature
dictating the sensible weather conditions across the Borderland
Region through the period. High pressure will continue building in
across the Four Corners and Southern Rockies region through the day,
leading to quiet weather conditions and above average warmth across
the desert lowlands. High temperatures this afternoon will top out
in the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny skies.

By the Thursday and Friday timeframe, upper level low over IL/MO/KY
tri-state area will interact soon-to-be Hurricane Helene after it
makes landfall near the Big Bend Region of Florida. Once inland
during the Thu-Fri timeframe, Helene will be pulled northwestward
across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys rotating around the
aforementioned upper low (Fujiwhara Effect). These two systems
will basically rotate around one another, while strengthening and
deepening. This will ultimately help strengthen the upper level
high over New Mexico leading the anomalous warmth through the
weekend.

High temperatures will be the warmest Friday through Sunday with
Friday being the hottest. 98 degrees is currently forecasted for
Friday which would tie the daily record. The possibility of hitting
100 degrees is not zero, but confidence in that happening is LOW.
Regardless, it`s going to be abnormally warm through the week.

Looking ahead, upper level ridging over the region will remain in
place leading to above average temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW120 through period. Winds generally east to southeast
at 5-15KTS, some gusts over 20KTS possible west of Divide and then
from 03Z-09Z along western mountain slopes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average
temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the
weekend. Fire weather concerns are LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED each
afternoon, LOW-END ELEVATED for elevations below 7500 ft. High
temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above the seasonal average
with Min RH values across the desert lowlands/Gila between 15-25
percent and 25-35 percent over the Sacs this afternoon.

As high pressure aloft becomes more established over New Mexico,
daily high temperatures will be 5-15 degrees above average with Min
RH values at or below critical thresholds Friday through early next
week.

Winds will remain light and generally out of east/southeast. Winds
over the mountains will be more terrain influenced, along with
following it`s typical diurnal wind flow regimes. Mixing heights
will range from 9000-13000 feet each afternoon with Good to Very
Good ventilation rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  93  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  92  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  90  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  70  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  92  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              61  88  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   59  93  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                59  93  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  92  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  92  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  93  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  85  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  93  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  91  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  91  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  92  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    59  93  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  93  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                60  90  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 45  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  47  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  91  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                56  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             38  88  43  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  90  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    50  93  48 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               46  90  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  88  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   60  94  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  92  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  93  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               60  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz