Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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447 FXUS64 KEWX 220600 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Daytime mixing will continue to scatter out low clouds and produce partly cloudy, and then mostly clear, skies late this afternoon into early evening. The general pattern of low-level clouds returning by late evening and persisting overnight into the next morning will continue, but lower boundary layer humidity should result in less fog along and east of I-35/I-37 Sunday morning. The approach of a longwave trough and near-surface cold front will bring sufficient lift for showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Rainfall will be spotty and average 1/10 inch or less. Daytime temperatures will be 2- 4F cooler across the entire area on Sunday because of additional cloudcover. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A much-needed pattern change appears to be on the way for the last full week of September. A mid-level trough will gradually erode the 500mb high that`s been keeping things hot and dry for the last couple of weeks in South Central Texas. On Monday, a cold front will start sliding southward into the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. Model trends continue to bring this front to a halt over the Hill Country late Monday and it is unlikely to make much progress until late Tuesday per the latest Canadian/ECMWF runs. The GFS is not as aggressive with forcing the boundary south, but the trend is your friend, and this time of year usually calls for frontal boundaries sliding further south the global model guidance usually suggests. In any matter, cooler temperatures, ample cloud cover, and an overrunning regime should result in scattered showers and the occasional isolated thunderstorm Monday afternoon, Tuesday afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Thursday, the mid-level trough should start to finally shift eastward into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a drying trend for the region. Dewpoints will be much more manageable, as slightly cooler, more so drier air, will work its way south with the frontal boundary. Expect more seasonable high and low temperatures in the 80s Wednesday, with mid to upper 80s and perhaps some lower 90s Thursday-Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Low clouds continue to expand along the I-35 corridor early this morning and we have started either prevailing or TEMPO groups for MVFR clouds a little ahead of schedule. Low clouds will eventually expand westward to DRT, with MVFR remaining in the forecast here as well. Low clouds will lift and mix back to VFR around 17Z, with VFR expected through this evening. Low cloud development is likely again early Monday morning and will mention SCT low clouds toward the end of our 30 hour sites (SAT and AUS). We could also see some convection develop near or just north of DRT late tonight or early Monday. For now, confidence is on the low side and will not mention in the TAF just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 96 74 93 73 / 0 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 92 71 87 69 / 0 20 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 76 91 75 / 0 30 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 73 90 71 / 0 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 94 72 93 73 / 0 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 72 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 93 75 / 0 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...17 Aviation...Platt