Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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033 FXUS64 KEWX 242345 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The stalled frontal boundary positioned over the region will re- activate with isolated to scattered convection from later this afternoon through this evening across primarily the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA. The combination of pooling instability with daytime highs peaking in the 90s combined with increased bulk shear to around 30-35 knots may be just enough to yield a stronger cell or two with potential of gusts of 40+ mph, small hail, and locally heavy downpours. Activity should wane towards and beyond the midnight hour. Overnight lows remain on the milder side through tonight ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. An upper level low pressure system moving across the Midwest into the Tennessee valley helps to steer Tropical Storm Helene toward Florida but will also propel a second cold front across South- Central Texas through Wednesday morning. This will help to focus rain chances towards the CRP CWA and into the far eastern coastal plains on Wednesday. The rest of the region looks to remain rain free with the arrival of drier air with moderate to breezy north winds in wake of the front. Gusts of 25+ mph could be possible Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs trend in the 80s across the northern half of the CWA behind the front while 90s still remain common during Wednesday afternoon across the southern half of the CWA. Wednesday night will be more refreshing with clearing skies with the drier post-frontal air. Overnight lows in the 50s are expected for the Hill Country while 60s trend elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A surface high will settle in over the northern part of the state on Thursday, setting up a beautiful day across South Central Texas. Comfortable humidity and plenty of sunshine can be expected along with highs in the 80s. Tranquil weather will be the norm through the weekend as we sit under northerly flow aloft. A large, upper level low will absorb the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene on Friday, and the upper low will meander over the southeastern CONUS through the weekend. Our region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, so it`s not out of the realm of possibility that a surge or two of slightly cooler and drier air can move southward into our region, but for now, the forecast calls for dry and seasonable conditions through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next 36 hours. The exception is fog possible across the Coastal Plains 09Z-14Z Wednesday, producing IFR visibilities. This fog should not impact SAT or AUS. The other exception is in any SHRA/TSRA activity this evening. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA activity will be possible along and north of a ERV-SAT-T20 line through around 05Z. Winds generally becoming variable around 5KT or less tonight, except in and near any evening SHRA/TSRA activity, where gusty wind speeds and erratic wind directions will be possible. A cold front will move through the area late morning through the early afternoon on Wednesday. A N wind will develop behind the front, with some gusts 20-25KT possible through portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 89 66 88 / 30 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 90 64 88 / 30 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 93 65 91 / 30 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 84 62 86 / 20 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 96 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 63 86 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 94 64 90 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 91 64 89 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 89 66 88 / 30 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 93 67 89 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 95 69 91 / 20 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...MMM Aviation...76