Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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582 FXUS64 KEWX 210514 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A 591 dm ridge remains centered over northeastern Mexico and south Texas early this afternoon. Despite its presence, we`ve managed to see a few isolated showers pop up once again under broad east- southeasterly surface flow. These showers are primarily daytime heating driven and won`t last much beyond the 6 pm hour as loss of solar heating commences. Highs will once again climb into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 103-107 in some spots today. More of the same can be expected on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Showers look less likely Saturday as the high moves pretty much right over the top of us. Not much else meaningful to mention in the short term. Muggy and hot conditions are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Models remain in good to excellent agreement with a longwave trough in the western U.S. suppressing the upper level ridge over Texas this coming week. Besides general 500 mb height falls, the lower levels will change as shortwave troughs passing through the central and northern U.S. will result in a cold front progressing south, and progressively weakening, with time. The front will be like shallow boundary and likely stall just north of our area, but act as a focus for storms there, with outflow boundaries to increasing low-level convergence and lift over our area, while a shortwave trough moves through at mid-week to provide mid and upper level lift. The sensible weather will be an increase in POPs first in the far northwest on Sunday evening, then spreading east into the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country on Monday, then finally south and east across the entire area Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. But don`t get your hopes up too high for rain, as chances max out around 20-30 percent and rainfall will be spotty and generally light, with most locations receiving 1/10 inch or less, and only a lucky few receiving 1/4 inch. Temperatures will be near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s for highs and mid 60s to lower 70s for lows) throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 There are a few low clouds around KSAT and KSSF with way more mid level clouds overhead and to the west of terminals as of 05Z. Still expecting low clouds to develop overnight (07z-08z) across the San Antonio sites and around 09z at KDRT and 12z over KAUS. MVFR cigs stay to about 15z-16z time frame and then to VFR conditions through the evening. Southeast winds 10 knots or less are forecast overnight through mid Saturday morning then picking up from 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 21 knots especially across KDRT in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 99 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 74 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 79 96 78 / 10 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 74 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 76 94 74 / 20 20 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 74 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 98 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 77 95 75 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 78 96 75 / 20 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...17