Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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656 FXUS64 KEWX 240848 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A few light showers are noted early this morning over the coastal plains to just east of the Interstate 35 corridor. These showers are developing south of a stationary front where the southerly flow in the low-levels is fairly weak. Southerly flow should decrease as the early morning hours progress, which should result in a decrease in activity toward sunrise. Rain chances through the morning hours will also remain in the forecast generally along and north of the stationary front over portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor. Some upper lift is currently moving in from the west, with some new convection noted over portions of west central Texas. We will keep rain chances low (generally 20%) this morning, but should see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating aids in the development of convection. For now, we will keep rain chances in the 20-40% range, but this may need to be boosted slightly pending convective trends to our northwest. A few of the hi-res models show some potential for stronger storms to develop across portions of the Hill Country. While shear will not be overly favorable this far south, sufficient heating should yield decent CAPE values. This along with some lift along the remnant frontal boundary and mid-level disturbances in the southern edge of an upper trough could yield a setup favorable for a strong storm or two. High temperatures today will be coolest north of the front, which should keep highs in the upper 80s across the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country. Elsewhere, highs will remain above normal, with lower to mid 90s in the forecast. Rain chances continue this evening as the above mentioned trough axis moves through the region. We should see a decrease in activity from north to south tonight as the trough axis begins to shift to our east. On Wednesday, northwest flow aloft on the backside of an upper trough along with a cold front will keep rain chances in the forecast for most of south central Texas. The exception will be out west across the southern Edwards Plateau into portions of the Rio Grande plains. High temperatures will trend downward for a good portion of the area on Wednesday. However, with the front moving in late in the day for areas generally along and south of a Del Rio to San Antonio to Karnes City line, expect another round of highs in the lower to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday night returns pleasant evening weather to the area as the drier air and north breeze will make the air through Thursday night more seasonal for late September. High pressure still looms large over West TX up into the central Rockies, and a weakening northerly flow over Central TX allows for warmer daytime temperatures for Friday through the weekend. The broader meridional pattern aloft all but prevents a return of south winds through Monday, so the relatively milder overnight temperatures will stick around for a while. Unfortunately the dry pattern with a dominant ridge to the west looks to hold us into drought for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Clouds are slowly on the increase across the region, but bases are above MVFR. We could still see some MVFR cigs develop toward sunrise and have kept this in the forecast for the I-35 sites. We will also monitor for -SHRA development this morning as a few attempts are noted on area radars. Conditions should improve back to VFR after 16Z given fairly shallow moisture in the lower levels. With afternoon heating, some convection may develop across the I-35 sites. For now, we will address the situation with a PROB30 group for TSRA for the I-35 sites during the late afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 72 90 66 / 40 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 70 90 66 / 40 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 72 93 66 / 40 20 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 69 85 62 / 30 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 77 96 68 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 70 86 63 / 30 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 72 94 66 / 20 20 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 70 91 65 / 40 20 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 71 89 65 / 40 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 74 93 69 / 30 20 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 74 95 70 / 20 20 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...18 Aviation...Platt