Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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856 FXUS62 KFFC 270722 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 322 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Key Messages - Strong winds and heavy rainfall from Helene will continue in the region this morning. - Conditions will improve rapidly this afternoon as precipitation ends and winds weaken. Today: At 3 AM, Helene was moving northwards through central Georgia. The storm made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida around 11 PM yesterday as a category 4 storm. As of the last update from the National Hurricane Center the storm was a category 1 hurricane. The storm should continue to decrease in intensity as it moves into north Georgia this morning. While the intensity may be falling, the storm remains dangerous. Additional tree and power line damage is probable as the storm moves northwards. Heavy tropical downpours will also continue to exacerbate flooding concerns. As we move into the late morning and early afternoon the rainfall and winds from Helene will gradually diminish as what remains of the system continues to rocket northwards. Guidance from the HREF favors a few lingering upslope rain showers over the north Georgia mountains this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of north and central Georgia should be rain free by early afternoon. Though the rain will have largely ended, local rivers and streams will continue to rise as runoff filters through the drainage basins. Anyone with interests that could be subject to river or stream flooding should continue to monitor the river forecasts closely. Tonight and Saturday: The remnants of Helene should be absorbed into an upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley tonight and Saturday. This should lead to increased rainfall over Tennessee and Kentucky, and some of this activity could wrap around into northern Georgia. A couple isolated showers could develop as far south as central Georgia with the diurnal heating Saturday afternoon. Any rainfall during this period should be light and scattered, with most locations receiving less than 0.10 inches of additional precipitation. Other than the minimal precipitation chances, no significant weather impacts are expected for storm clean up activities. Peak wind gusts should be in the 20 to 25 mph range Saturday afternoon and high temperatures will be in the 70s. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Key Messages: - Due to excessive rainfall from Hurricane Helene river flooding will likely linger into the workweek, especially along the main stem rivers. - Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail through the upcoming workweek. Sunday through the Workweek: Upper level troughing should hangout over the central Appalachians through early next week. This will allow a slight chance of thunderstorms to linger over the north Georgia mountains through Monday. Given the saturated soils any thunderstorms could pose a localized flooding risk. Drier air wrapping around the trough from the west should help keep the rest of Georgia dry Sunday and Monday. Ensemble guidance shifts the trough east into the Atlantic during the second half of the workweek As this occurs an upper level ridge should build in over the Southeast. Forecast confidence is high that this will result in continued dry weather through the end of the workweek (72 of 80 GEFS & EPS members produce less than 0.1 inches or precipitation in Atlanta through next Friday). The overall strength of the upper level ridge looks modest and this should keep afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages all week (around 80 degrees). Albright && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 As Hurricane Helene continues to move into central and northern Georgia conditions will remain very hazardous for aviation. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in the region through 13Z Friday. Then conditions will gradually improve from south to north, with prevailing VFR/MVFR likely by 21Z Friday. Winds will remain hazardous in the region through 16Z Friday, with gusts in the 50 to 75 kt range possible. Winds should improve after 16Z, though gusts in the 20 to 35 kt range may linger through 00Z Saturday. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF. The center of Helene remains south of ATL and confidence is high that winds will continue to increase through 09Z. Moderate confidence in gusts over 50 kt at ATL between 08Z and 13Z Friday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 62 80 64 / 50 10 10 10 Atlanta 74 63 78 64 / 60 10 20 10 Blairsville 71 58 70 59 / 90 20 50 30 Cartersville 74 63 78 62 / 80 20 30 10 Columbus 79 64 83 65 / 0 0 10 10 Gainesville 74 62 76 64 / 70 10 20 20 Macon 79 64 83 66 / 10 0 10 10 Rome 74 64 75 62 / 90 30 40 10 Peachtree City 75 62 79 62 / 30 10 20 10 Vidalia 83 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016- 019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027- 030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112- 113. Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097- 102>111. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Albright