Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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889 FXUS63 KFGF 230829 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less than 20% chance for patchy frost in west central and northern Minnesota this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...Synopsis... Large area of cloud cover continues to translate through North Dakota and Minnesota this morning. Areas that saw clearing earlier this morning have had temperatures drop to the upper 30s, but as soon as cloud cover moved in temperatures start to rebound into the 40s. These clouds are ahead of an approaching shortwave moving in from Canada. Northwesterly flow continues across the region through Tuesday, with the introduction of a short wave moving through this afternoon and into Tuesday morning. Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions out for the week. ...Patchy Frost... Areas that are experiencing clearing this morning have had temperatures drop down into the upper 30s. These ares are located in a corridor from Beltrami county through Wadena county. Current observations have these areas hovering in the upper 30s, with the potential for isolated locations dropping into the mid 30s. These areas could see patchy frost this morning but confidence is low as clouds are moving into these areas helping to rebound temperatures. We are already starting to see this in Bemidji, where temperatures have already jumped up into the mid 40s this morning. None the less there is still a less than 20% chance a few isolated spots see patchy frost this morning in west central and northern Minnesota. As we progress through Monday a shortwave moves down from Canada bringing scattered showers to the area this afternoon through Tuesday morning. The main instability axis remains west of the area, with less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE in the Devils Lake Basin. This means any thunderstorm chance will be little to none for the area this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Probabilities of seeing higher than 0.10 inches of QPF are 40-50% for the Devils Lake Basin and 20-40% for the Red River Valley. Anything over 0.30 inches is less than 10% for the region. Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool down in temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a window for patchy fog development in west central MN through sunrise, but there are no indications in guidance of this at this time (KBJI would be the one TAF site we will monitor based on surface high position where light winds should persist). Southerly winds increase above 12kt during the late morning/daytime period Monday as pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the approaching low pressure and associated front (gusts 20-25kt most common in eastern ND). This system is shown to bring chances for high based light showers (30-40% chance), with better chances at KDVL Monday evening (less confidence east). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Spender AVIATION...DJR