Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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905 FXUS65 KFGZ 241618 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 918 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the week. Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend. && .UPDATE...High pressure remains situated over much of Arizona, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast today. Minor updates this morning to increase overnight northeasterly winds and smoke/haze near Pine. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...The weather story of the week will be the dominant high pressure that builds across the desert southwest. This will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the region. Daytime highs will be around 5-15 degrees above normal through the weekend, though some slight cooling is expected by the weekend. Winds will generally be light through the period with easterly winds today before a shift to the south to southwest on Wednesday. Models are trying to show a shortwave trough moving into California over the weekend but the high might be just a bit too strong to allow for it to have much influence across our forecast area. If anything, we may see the winds increase some late in the weekend as there is little to no moisture available for us to tap into which will keep us dry. Item of note: the warm temperatures are more reminiscent of July temperatures over what we expect for late September. As a result, we may near or even break some of the daily maximum temperature records so definitely something to keep an eye on, especially as we head into the later part of the week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 24/18Z through Wednesday 25/18Z...VFR conditions with winds E/NE 5-10 kts with occasional gusts 15-20 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions with S/SE winds around 10 kts on Wednesday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue each day. Minimum RH values will range between 10-25%. Expect winds varying in direction 5-15 mph this afternoon, becoming more southerly on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Afternoon highs 5-15 degrees above normal will continue through the weekend. Winds will generally be light and variable each day, along with minimum RH values between 10- 25%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys/Meola AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff