063
FXUS65 KFGZ 261733
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1033 AM MST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
continue to be the main story with high pressure dominating the
Southwest.

&&

.UPDATE...The tranquil, very warm, and dry conditions remain in
place over northern Arizona with light breezes and mostly clear
skies expected for this afternoon. Scattered, fair weather
cumulus clouds could develop along the high terrain this
afternoon, as everywhere else should be mostly clear. Widespread
high temperatures, 10-15 degrees above average for this time of
year, are forecast for this afternoon, however, relief overnight
is anticipated to continue. Light southerly winds, 5-15 mph, will
take place for this afternoon as well, becoming calm by
nightfall. The current forecast remains on track with no changes
needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /409 AM MST/...A weak shortwave looks to pass
along the U.S./Canada border today, but shouldn`t bring any
impacts to Arizona due to the impressive ridge that has settle
across the Southwest. This area of high pressure will wobble
around day-to-day, but ultimately our story won`t alter much.
Expect daytime highs to ring in 8-16 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

Outside of seasonably warm temperatures, expect mostly light
winds and dry conditions to remain in place. Smoke/haze will also
stick around the Flagstaff area from nearby fires. If you wake up
to smokey conditions, be patient as the inversion breaks by the
early afternoon allowing smoke to rise further aloft.

There may be slight relief by the middle of next week. The
previously mentioned upper-level ridge looks to weaken, but still
remain in place over Arizona. As a result, daytime highs should
inch back closer to average temperatures for this time of year.
Still might not completely feel like fall, but that`s the likely
potential relief in sight at the moment.

Beyond our extended forecast...The ECMWF model does show a large
trough sweeping in from off the Pacific Northwest Coast by the
first weekend in October. Take this with a grain of salt
though...this is the only model currently hinting at this
solution. Normally, something this far out wouldn`t be worth
mentioning due to the large uncertainty, but the forecast is
pretty quiet so why not take a look beyond our 7-days.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 26/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions persist through the period with some FEW-SCT fair
weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Scattered haze/smoke is
possible near KFLG/KSEZ this evening, however this depends on
local fire activity. Expect light southerly winds, 5-15 kts,
through 01Z, becoming variable thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/18Z through Sunday 29/18Z...Plan on mostly VFR
conditions with FEW-SCT cloud cover above 10,000 feet AGL. Periods
of smoke/haze will be possible depending on local fire activity.
Easterly winds, 5-15 kts, are likely on Friday, followed by light
southerly winds for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above average will continue each afternoon. Winds will vary in
direction each day generally 5 to 15 mph. Expect minimum RH values
to be 25% or less.

Saturday through Monday...Look for afternoon temperatures to remain
well above average through the weekend and into next week. Winds
will generally be out of the south along and south of the Mogollon
Rim Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 20 mph. Areas north of the Rim will
see light and variable winds. Winds varying in direction 5 to 15 mph
return on Monday. Minimum RH values will remain between 10 to 20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Konieczny
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff