Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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236 FXUS65 KFGZ 271057 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 357 AM MST Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and mostly light winds will continue to be the main story through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION...An upper-level ridge is forecast to dominate the Southwest through at least the next 7 days. The structure of this ridge will wobble around each day, causing very slight fluctuations in our forecast. Through the weekend and into the first half of next week, temperatures will remain 10-18 degrees above normal for this time of year. Keeping up with the same song and dance, dry conditions and generally light winds will persist through the next several days too. A more zonal flow will settle in by Wednesday. This won`t change our forecast a whole lot...daytime highs will still be above normal (by 5-10 degrees), and dry conditions will continue. Winds will increase a smidge becoming 10-20 mph out of the west- southwest. Towards the end of next week, we could see a shortwave glide through northern Arizona. The GFS seems to be the only model suggesting this solution, so our confidence is low on any impacts coming out of this. Otherwise, there doesn`t look to be any major synoptic changes in the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION...Friday 27/12Z through Saturday 28/12Z...VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period, with periods of FU/HZ possible near KFLG, KSEZ, and KPAN. Winds varying in direction expected 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Saturday 28/12Z through Monday 30/12Z...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with periods of FU/HZ possible near KFLG, KSEZ, and KPAN. Mostly S-SE winds 5-15 kts along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line Saturday and Sunday afternoon, with lighter/variable winds elsewhere. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Expect daytime highs to be 10- 18 degrees above normal, along with afternoon RH values between 10- 20%. Winds will be light and variable today, becoming more southerly 10-20 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Afternoon temperatures will very slightly decline throughout the week, but still remain 8-16 degrees above normal. Look for minimum RH values 10-25% each day, and winds 5-15 mph varying in direction. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff