Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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150 FXUS63 KFSD 020348 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1048 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monitoring for a potential severe weather outbreak later Sunday into Sunday night. Not a cut and dry threat. May see some isolated stronger storms early morning, some slightly stronger/severe storms early to late afternoon, then the strongest more severe storms very late afternoon into Sunday evening/night. - Tuesday may be the next chance for severe weather, but still some question marks, the main one being a potential MCS late Monday night into Tuesday morning which could push the deeper instability south and limit Tuesday afternoon potential. Models also starting to hint that the overall system will come out more quickly. - Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected to prevail mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A quiet afternoon and evening is expected for the area as instability remains mostly bottled up to the southwest, at least through about midnight. A very isolated storm could develop around Gregory or Chamberlain this evening but confidence is low. After midnight some elevated instability in the form of CAPE values of 500- 1000 J/kg will spread across the area. With limited shear the severe threat will remain low and likely just looking at dime to quarter sized hail as the main threat. The better threat for this may be in far southeast SD into northwest IA where the stronger LLJ exists. By Sunday morning this activity, if it develops, should exit the area. Another cluster of storms will be possible late morning into early afternoon as a lead piece of energy aloft moves to the northwest and some additional elevated instability increases. Some hints of 1500 J/kg of CAPE or so with a bit better shear so possibly some isolated severe storms with hail again the main threat but some wind would also be possible. These storms into early to mid afternoon could produce hail to half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph. The better chance for severe weather should come after about 6 pm with an incoming cold front. Plenty of instability (2000-2500 J/kg) and shear (0-6km bulk shear 30-40 knots) so just a matter of getting storms to develop if the earlier activity does not disturb the daytime heating. The strongest storms will likely develop just west and southwest of the area which may leave the largest hail threat outside of the area. Some hints that the storms will transition to linear after about 7-8 pm and potentially see the biggest problems with the strongest winds near and south of the Missouri River, then possibly into northwest IA after 10 pm or so. For now the main threat for the largest hail would be near and west of the James with the highest threat for winds of 70 mph south of I- 90. Monday should be a pretty nice day behind the exiting system with lighter winds and highs in the 80s. Maybe a bit of humidity lingering with the recent rains and lighter winds expected. The models appear to be coming to more agreement on a faster front Tuesday, so starting to look like the better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Maybe some lingering threat near and east of the Buffalo Ridge. The overall severe weather threat looks marginal with limited instability and a pretty poor shear profile. Regardless looks like another good chance for rainfall. Dry and seasonally mild weather is expected Wednesday into Saturday. Fairly strong northwest flow aloft is expected with persistent ridging across the Rockies and low pressure over the Great Lakes region. This will keep any deeper moisture and instability suppressed well to the south. Lows should mostly be in the 50s with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 There will be a small risk of showers and thunderstorms for later tonight into Sunday. Risks will increase by late Sunday afternoon/evening, and some of these storms could be severe. Light southeasterly winds tonight will increase on Sunday morning, gusting 20 to 25 kts into Sunday evening. Some MVFR ceilings may develop late Sunday evening with the thunderstorm activity. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...JM