059
FXUS64 KFWD 251710
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have diminished, and the
cold front responsible for this activity has just crossed our
southern border. Post-frontal stratus developed behind the front
across much of the region but will scatter out over the next few
hours, leaving behind sunny skies for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. Nice fall weather is expected this
afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s and
a prevailing northeast wind around 10-15 mph.

Clear skies, light winds, and dry post-frontal air will result in
a cooler night across the region with overnight lows falling into
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be another pleasant day
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

No major changes to the extended forecast have occurred with the
overnight update. Near normal temperatures will prevail through
most of the period with a fairly quiet forecast in store for the
next several days.

Northerly surface winds will continue Friday with peak afternoon
gusts near 25-30 mph, as what is currently TS Helene weakens and
moves inland after its forecast landfall as a major hurricane in
Florida. As this occurs Thursday night, Helene will interact with
the upper level low situated just to our east, moving around the
northern periphery of the upper low before it becomes absorbed
into it`s stronger counterpart. Resultant moisture from the
tropical system will wrap around this low and enter eastern North
TX, allowing for low rain chances (20%) to return on Friday
generally north and east of areas from Bonham to Sulphur Springs.

The rest of the period will be rain-free with a slight warming
trend set to take place over the weekend and into early next
week. Near or slightly below normal high temperatures Friday in
the low and mid 80s will warm into the mid and upper 80s, with a
few locations hitting the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Looking just
beyond the official forecast, a cold front looks to move through
the Plains which should bring a slight cool down midweek, but the
extent of which will likely change over the next several days.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Pesky MVFR ceilings continue across much of the region but should
scatter out in the Metroplex by ~18Z (~19Z for KACT). VFR is
expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Northeast winds near
10 to 15 knots will prevail this afternoon, but speeds will
diminish to around 5 knots by late evening. North winds around 10
knots are expected on Thursday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  83  63  83 /  10   0   0   5   5
Waco                82  60  85  59  85 /  30   0   0   0   5
Paris               82  58  83  59  79 /  20   0   0   5  20
Denton              84  58  85  59  85 /   5   0   0   5   5
McKinney            84  59  85  60  84 /  10   0   0   5  10
Dallas              83  63  85  63  85 /  10   0   0   5   5
Terrell             82  60  84  59  83 /  20   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           83  63  85  61  85 /  30   0   0   0   5
Temple              87  60  87  59  87 /  20   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       84  58  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$