Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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915 FXUS64 KFWD 231056 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 556 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Showers and thunderstorms continue to move through North Texas this morning associated with a slow moving cold front. Rainfall rates increased quite a bit with some localized urban flooding across parts of the Metroplex, but these rates have since decreased over the last hour. The only significant changes to the short term forecast were to raise PoPs where ongoing precipitation is occurring and through the rest of the early morning hours. Coverage of rain/storms should diminish over the next several hours with abundant cloud cover persisting into the afternoon. Otherwise, no major changes were needed. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Tuesday/ A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour and is draped along a line from near Sherman to Dallas to Comanche. Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the upper 60s across the northwest with breezy north winds. The front will continue to make steady southward progress through the night, but will slow down early Monday morning as the main shortwave pulls off to the northeast. We`ll remain beneath larger scale broad troughing throughout the Southern Plains today which will keep at least some weak forcing for ascent in place. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are currently ongoing behind the front in response to modest isentropic ascent. This will begin to wane as we head into the mid morning hours on Monday. For the rest of the overnight period, we`ll continue to have high PoPs mainly across the northwest half of the CWA. Some localized pockets of heavier rainfall associated with more vigorous convective activity could produce more than an inch of rain, but most areas will generally see light totals. The front should make it into central Texas later today and despite the better forcing being removed from the area, it should remain a focus for at least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. PoPs will be confined to the frontal zone across our central TX counties and generally be capped at 20%. Abundant cloud cover will limit high temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s north of the front while a few locations to the south of the boundary could push 90 degrees again this afternoon. Clouds will thin out some tonight with most areas falling into the low/mid 60s. On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will linger across our Central TX counties again and should be a focus for at least isolated to scattered showers and storms through the day. We`ll have PoPs at 20-30% during this time with high temperatures in the 80s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ /Wednesday Onward/ Overview... No major weather impacts are expected during the extended forecast periods. The mid and late workweek will feature slightly below- normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s (low 50s across North Texas outside of the Metroplex). A warming trend is expected over the weekend into early next week. The best chance for rain will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with lower rain chances returning Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will also be breezy, but below Wind Advisory criteria. Meteorological Discussion... The cooler weather and relatively quiet pattern later this week will largely be a result of being under the back side of a stout upper-level low over the Mississippi Valley. The primary shortwave trough for this low will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, developing some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during this time. This trough should move south/east by Wednesday afternoon, with northerly flow aloft prevailing thereafter. Normally, that would be the end of the story for this feature and our attention would shift to what`s coming from the west. However, the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days with a disturbance currently in the western Caribbean Sea. Why does this matter? No, there is not a reasonable threat of landfall to the Texas Gulf coast, but the consensus in the guidance has the tropical system moving into Southeastern CONUS, then getting wrapped into the aforementioned upper-level low. 500 mb progs in the deterministic--and even the latest mean ensemble--guidance is indicating a high likelihood of the Fujiwhara effect occurring over the Central and Eastern CONUS late this week into this weekend. As this ensues, the upper low should deepen and shift west, bringing increased rain chances to the area Friday and Saturday. Also in response to this, a corridor of strong northerly winds develop across the Central Plains. Only about 10% of the guidance is suggesting wind speeds at or above our Wind Advisory criteria, but it should still be a breezy Friday and Saturday. As far as what happens to the tropical system as it merges into the parent upper low over the weekend, it should migrate entirely around the low. As it moves into and through the southwestern quadrant of the low, it will have the most influence on our local weather. What that influence will be is still largely TBD, but it doesn`t look to be overly impactful at this time. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through North Texas this morning with pockets of MVFR/IFR cigs. A period of IFR cigs is expected through about 14-15Z before lifting a bit into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Precipitation should be winding down over the next few hours. Widespread MVFR cigs will likely persist into the afternoon hours before lifting further. Northerly winds will generally prevail, although some variability in direction is expected in and around precipitation areas. A light westerly wind is expected overnight. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 67 89 66 83 / 70 10 10 40 20 Waco 85 68 88 65 86 / 50 20 30 30 20 Paris 81 62 86 63 81 / 80 10 5 30 20 Denton 76 61 87 64 83 / 40 5 10 50 20 McKinney 79 63 87 64 83 / 70 5 5 40 20 Dallas 81 66 88 66 85 / 80 10 10 40 20 Terrell 84 65 87 64 83 / 100 10 10 30 20 Corsicana 87 68 88 66 86 / 70 20 20 30 20 Temple 87 68 88 66 87 / 30 20 30 40 20 Mineral Wells 74 61 88 63 83 / 30 10 20 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$