905
FXUS65 KGGW 222008
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
208 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and unsettled conditions remain into Friday, including
scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds this afternoon and
evening.

2) A warming trend into next week comes with decreased daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Expect occasional shortwaves helping produce enough lift and
instability for daily shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly this afternoon/evening associated with a cold front.
Ensemble maximum wind gust potential for thunderstorms are in the
40-50 mph range amidst otherwise light winds today. A low
pressure system will maintain widespread shower chances through
Thursday evening. As the upper trough gradually exits to the east
this weekend, the extent of ridging early next week will
determine how much warmer and drier conditions trend.


CONFIDENCE LEVEL and POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

+++ AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Blended in FV3 PoP guidance with NBM (25% FV3/75% NBM) through
tonight as the FV3 was the best at identifying the start of
convection across Dawson and central Valley. Otherwise, forecast
remains similar ++++

Confidence remains high for temperatures and widespread coverage
of rain showers at times through Thursday night, but medium on
exact amounts and precise location given the challenges associated
with the convective nature. Probabilities of a half inch or more
of rain generally exceed 30% south of the Missouri River and the
Little Rockies during this period. There have been no notable
deviations from the base forecast, but precise timing of
precipitation will be monitored in the short term.

-Zanker/Enriquez


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: A cold front along with daytime instability introduces
low to medium (20-40%) chances for thunderstorms primarily from
21Z-02Z across the TAF sites. Impacts from this include brief
gusty winds and reduction to MVFR mainly due to visibility.
Otherwise, there is high (80%) confidence for lingering shower
activity and increasing northeast winds tonight.

-Zanker/Enriquez


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow