Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
508 FXPQ50 PGUM 262009 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 609 AM ChST Mon May 27 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Latest satellite shows low and mid clouds and isolated showers over and east of the Marianas coastal waters. Altimetry data shows 3 to 5 ft seas just east of the waters. && .Discussion... A trough is currently passing through the area this morning. Expect isolated showers as the trough passes through. Repeating yesterday`s discussion, models suggest winds slightly lighter and possibly more east-southeast. Also the TUTT is predicted to move west across the Marianas starting around late Tuesday so the weather may be slightly more unstable around mid-week, so we may need to increase the shower and thunderstorm potential. && .Marine... Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to weaken slightly mid- week. Sea heights of 3 to 5 feet is expected to rise slightly today then drop back down by mid-week. && .Eastern Micronesia... Little change has been made to the forecast. Satellite imagery and model guidance continues to indicate an ITCZ-like pattern rebuilding across eastern Micronesia over the next few days, increasing shower and thunderstorm potential significantly over Pohnpei through tonight. On-and-off showers remain to be expected over Kosrae and Majuro through at least Tuesday. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will remain as such for much of the week, mainly influenced by the background trade swell. && .Western Micronesia... A weakening TUTT cell northwest of Chuuk is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as it continues moving west toward Yap State this morning. Latest model analysis overnight shows an active trade-wind pattern continuing over the region generating numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least the middle of the week at Chuuk. Scattered showers, with periods of isolated showers mixed in, are expected at Yap and Palau through the end of the work week as an active trade-wind pattern is expected to persist. Gentle to moderate trades and benign sea conditions are expected through Friday. Altimetry data this morning shows seas between 3 and 5 feet, while buoys at Yap and Palau show seas around 4 feet. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Hong Eastern Micronesia: Montvila Western Micronesia: Kelly