508
FXPQ50 PGUM 262009
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
609 AM ChST Mon May 27 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite shows low and mid clouds and isolated showers over
and east of the Marianas coastal waters. Altimetry data shows 3 to 5
ft seas just east of the waters.

&&

.Discussion...
A trough is currently passing through the area this morning. Expect
isolated showers as the trough passes through. Repeating yesterday`s
discussion, models suggest winds slightly lighter and possibly more
east-southeast. Also the TUTT is predicted to move west across the
Marianas starting around late Tuesday so the weather may be slightly
more unstable around mid-week, so we may need to increase the shower
and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.Marine...
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to weaken slightly mid-
week. Sea heights of 3 to 5 feet is expected to rise slightly today
then drop back down by mid-week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Little change has been made to the forecast. Satellite imagery and
model guidance continues to indicate an ITCZ-like pattern rebuilding
across eastern Micronesia over the next few days, increasing shower
and thunderstorm potential significantly over Pohnpei through
tonight. On-and-off showers remain to be expected over Kosrae and
Majuro through at least Tuesday.

Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will remain as such for much of the week,
mainly influenced by the background trade swell.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A weakening TUTT cell northwest of Chuuk is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms as it continues moving west toward
Yap State this morning. Latest model analysis overnight shows an
active trade-wind pattern continuing over the region generating
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least the
middle of the week at Chuuk. Scattered showers, with periods of
isolated showers mixed in, are expected at Yap and Palau through the
end of the work week as an active trade-wind pattern is expected to
persist.

Gentle to moderate trades and benign sea conditions are expected
through Friday. Altimetry data this morning shows seas between 3 and
5 feet, while buoys at Yap and Palau show seas around 4 feet.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Hong
Eastern Micronesia: Montvila
Western Micronesia: Kelly