Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
939 FXUS64 KHGX 032311 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 611 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Much like yesterday, development has started this afternoon across our N/NE counties; courtesy of daytime heating, strengthening LLJ, increased PWs and perhaps a passing disturbance aloft. The rest of the CWA will likely remain under the influence of the cap with very little if any activity developing the rest of this afternoon. But, as we head into tonight, rain chances should continue/persist over these same northern CWA with approach of the MCS (or its remnants) from NorthTX. Locations near the Piney Woods (ie. Houston/Trinity/Polk counties) still have the best chances for strong/severe storms with this sy- stem as SPC keeps a Slight Risk in place (level 2 of 5) tonight. A Marginal Risk will remain for areas from the Brazos Valley east to Lake Livingston (level 1 of 5). Additionally...WPC is also keeping much of this same "layout" in place for its Excessive Rain outlook (with a Slight Risk across our NE counties and a Marginal Risk for the next 2 tiers of counties (levels 2/1 of 4)). So damaging wind, hail and heavy rainfall are going to be main hazards tonight. Otherwise, for much of the rest of SE TX, mostly cloudy skies will prevail with warm/quiet/humid weather in place for the rest of the overnight period. Lows should be in the mid to upper 70s...then to around 80 along the immediate coast. Tues is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs mostly in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the beaches). Rain chances should stay limited during much of the day, but we could see some isolated de- velopment by the late afternoon (via daytime heating, returning LL jet, elevated PWs to around 2" and maybe some lingering boundaries from the overnight activity). And per models, we could see another round of showers/storms tomorrow night with yet another MCS moving down from the Southern Plains, which could be the last one for the near future (as the ridge aloft begins building in from the west). However...this activity could impact more of SE TX as the steering flow at the mid/upper levels become more NW/SE (in contrast to the zonal flow of late). Lows tomorrow night should be in the mid to upper 70s for most lo- cations once again...around 80 along the immediate coast. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Mid/upper ridge expands northward from Mexico into the Rockies and West Texas during the second part of the work week. Despite warm-hot surface readings, llvl capping should mostly keep a lid on convection...though not exactly zero. Places to watch for some isolated shra/tstms might be across ne/e parts of the CWA and also maybe a very small possibility of an isolated late aftn/evening tstm along the coastal seabreeze. A weak backdoor front is forecast to sag into portions of East Tx and maybe the NE 1/3 our CWA Friday. This boundary too might provide somewhat of a focus to look for some scattered late afternoon/evening convection Friday & Saturday. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Southeast to south-southeast winds should decrease as the evening progresses. We are monitoring a line of thunderstorms over northeast Texas. For now, this is not expected to impact our region. We do mentioned VCSH for CLL and UTS but even that might be a stretch. MVFR cigs develop overnight. Could not rule out localized MVFR vis as well. Cigs/vis should improve by mid-morning tomorrow while winds begin to increase from the south to south- southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas will continue through midweek. Will continue flying the caution flags and advertising the high risk of rip currents along area beaches. Winds and seas should begin diminishing as we head into the second part of the work week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 93 77 94 / 20 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 78 92 78 94 / 10 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 86 81 89 / 10 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Self MARINE...Adams