885
FXUS64 KHGX 030505
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Activity has begun to develop over our north/northeastern CWA this
afternoon, but coverage, so far, has been limited. But will likely
maintain scattered POPs for these areas through the evening hours,
as daytime heating persists. Showers/storms should decrease by to-
night with the passage of the short wave and loss of heating, with
the best rain chances moving N/NE of the CWA. So for SE TX, mostly
cloudy skies should prevail with warm/quiet/humid weather in place
for the rest of the overnight period. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 70s for most areas, near 80 along the immediate coast.

Mon is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs generally in
the lower 90s...upper 80s at the beaches. Rain chances will continue
to be tricky as much of the guidance is still having issues with the
timing of the next MCS from the west. Current runs are pointing to a
late Mon night passage across Central TX to the east. This still has
the best/highest POPs for areas going further north into our CWA. Of
note, SPC`s Day 2 Outlook does include the northern parts of Houston
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)...with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for locations generally north of a line from Caldwell-Conroe-
Cleveland. Otherwise, lows to range from the mid to upper 70s across
much of the area, around 80 along the immediate coast once again. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main concern through the long term will be the return of the
heat. A long fetch of southerly flow at the surface driven by a
surface high pressure in the SE CONUS will help drive the
temperatures and dew points up. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon heat indices
rising to near 100 to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s for most inland locations with areas along the
immediate coast not dropping below 80 degrees. Also because of the
higher dew points along the coast, overnight heat indices may not
drop below 90 degrees.

Rain chances through the upcoming week will be fairly low. The
chances are slightly higher Tuesday and Wednesday as we get some
weak disturbances slide overhead combined with daytime heating,
but even then not looking like anything impressive as of right
now. Those low rain chances drop even lower as we head towards the
end of the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over
Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

MVFR conditions beginning to emerge at non-TAF sites, but should
expand to become the rule across SE TX overnight and perhaps even
some light sprinkles. Winds should stay strong enough to keep
conditions as stratus, and largely keep fog at bay. However, where
winds go slack, some briefly reduced VSBY could occur.
Improvement back to VFR through the morning, with gusty
southeast/south winds emerging for the afternoon. Confidence
increasing in afternoon showers and storms mostly impacting
northeast of all terminals, but could initiate close enough to UTS
and CXO, that a period of VCTS is prudent at those two sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the
middle of next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft may need to
exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as
wind gusts to near 20kt. There will be continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some storms may become strong
to severe producing locally gusty winds and elevated seas. The
persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip
currents through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  77  95 /  10  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  77  91  78  93 /  10  30  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  81  88 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler