325
FXUS64 KHUN 030812
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
312 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The cloud shield associated with the complex of thunderstorms in
Lousiana is starting to stream into the TN Valley. These mid level
clouds are mitigating fog development W of I-65, but creating
lower ceilings. East of I-65, the RGB Nighttime Satellite imagery
shows fog filling the valleys and reducing visibilities as low as
1/2 mi at this hour. Fog and low ceilings will improve with
sunrise.

Rest of today, high sfc pressure remains off to our east and it
will be humid and warm with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Have low
chances (20%) of showers and thunderstorms in mainly for this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tonight, low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms will
linger ahead of a shortwave that will make its way in on Tuesday.
This will bring medium chances (60%) of showers/storms across the
board by Tuesday afternoon that will be capable of producing gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. On Wednesday, an upper level low gliding
just north of the U.S. and Canadian border but NW of the Great
Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low
will have a cold front extending down the MS Valley. There
continues to be model disagreement on the timing of the front,
however expecting to see medium to high chances (60-80%) of
showers/storms on Wednesday ahead of the front when a weak
shortwave also swings through. Forecast soundings are showing some
instability and 75th percentile or higher PWATS, thus storms will
be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Will have
to monitor how far south the bulk of the convection will end up on
Wednesday, as that will determine adjustments to QPF values and
any hydro concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a
sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end
to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will
maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model
differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal
norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the
afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry
and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will
be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure
drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of
northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast.
Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday
morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60
degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the
weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the
area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Conditions are VFR at this time, however expecting VIS to drop to
MVFR or lower at times with fog development, especially between
09-12Z. Once fog dissipates, VFR conditions will prevail through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...JMS