Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
460 FXUS62 KILM 221757 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Other than isolated showers across Southeast North Carolina this morning, expect a dry forecast for the remainder of the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures to remain just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week due to the passage of the next frontal system. && .UPDATE... Coastal flood advisory for the beaches has ended. Coastal Flood Warning for Downtown Wilmington and Brunswick side of the Lower Cape Fear River continues through 5pm. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-level ridge axis will slide eastward this period, but still remaining west of the ILM CWA, thus continuing the NW flow aloft. The mid-level s/w trof will weaken as it slides off the northern NC Coast and offshore early this morning. Another dampening mid-level s/w trof will follow suit and actually drop across the ILM NC CWA this aftn and tonight. With a backdoor cold front dropping south, may see isolated convection this aftn into this evening, in the vicinity of this front. POPs to remain within the low chance category. Ample sun still expected today with maxes in the mid to upper 80s with a few remote 90s given the downsloping trajectory of the winds aloft. Later tonight will be interesting as far as the potential for areas to widespread fog and/or low stratus. At this point, stayed on the optimistic side given the slow progression of the front southward. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridge axis deepens slightly Monday, creating a dry and warm forecast. Parts of southeast NC may have a bit more clouds to contend with as part of the shortwave passing offshore. This only serves to create a small temperature gradient across the area, with highs in the lower 80s in the Cape Fear region, to the upper 80s in the far interior portions of the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions. More moisture builds into the column Monday night through Tuesday night, allowing for rain chances to return a little quicker than expected (not that this amounts to much). Mesoscale features like the Piedmont trough and seabreeze would help to spawn convection, if any. Highs Tuesday about the same as the day before. Lows each night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Uncertainty continues in the long term forecast period, at least with the specifics of the large scale patterns. CMC and ECMWF are starting to come together a bit more on an upper trough in the upper Midwest spitting out a cutoff low that traverses through either the Plains or Mid South towards the end of the week. GFS shows less cutoff low and more of said upper Midwest trough sweeping through the Great Lakes region late week, before going through New England by the weekend. This creates timing and intensity differences on the frontal system due to move through late week, which has been the same old story these last several forecast cycles. Regardless of the specifics, the bigger story is that this looks like a warm and muggy period, certainly not something representing astronomical fall. Rain chances on the rise, particularly Thursday through Saturday as the front nears the area. Guidance shows the front slowing and possibly stalling by the weekend, which is not surprising. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday, before falling to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Friday and Saturday, aided by thicker cloud cover or even FROPA. Better yet, hopefully those dastardly 70s dewpoints are gone by the weekend. Keep those pumpkin spice lattes on ice for now. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR will prevail through this evening. Scattered 3500ft clouds moving in from the north will lift through late afternoon before dissipating. A backdoor cold front from the north may spawn a few showers within a couple of hours surrounding 0z as it moves into southeast NC before stalling. MVFR fog possible across inland terminals during early morning hours, as well as CRE courtesy of nearby ICW, with light winds and shallow moisture at the surface. Primary forecast concern is the potential for low stratus across southeast NC starting around 6z and lingering through late Monday morning. Despite MOS guidance hitting hard on IFR stratus moving into the area from the north-northeast overnight, not seeing much agreement in RH fields, soundings, and HREF guidance. Higher confidence in low stratus (low end MVFR/high end IFR) to the north-northwest of the CWA, with KLBT having the best chance for low cigs overnight through Monday morning. Confidence is lower whether these cigs will make it to ILM (or FLO), and if they do they may be SCT and/or short lived. Will need to reevaluate for next couple of TAF cycles. Extended Outlook...Mainly dry and VFR until midweek when the next cold front approaches. Expect daily early morning MVFR/IFR due to fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Diffuse pressure pattern ahead of a backdoor cold front will result in a generally S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt thru tonight. The exception will be the passage of the cold front across the Surf City to Cape Fear waters by daybreak Mon. This will result in winds becoming NE 10 kt or less for these northern waters. Seas generally 2 to 3 ft and dominated by an easterly swell. Monday through Thursday...Onshore flow continues throughout the period, mostly out of the ESE. Winds mostly at 10 kts, increasing to 10-15 kts by Thursday. Seas remain locked in 1-3 ft through Wednesday night. By Thursday, a cold front starts to approach the waters, where gradients tighten, allowing seas to build up to 2-4 ft, with a few 5 ft waves spotted 20 nm from shore. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into early next week with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for minor coastal flooding requiring an advisory. However, criteria along the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south may reach Moderate Coastal flood thresholds requiring a Coastal Flood Warning. Upstream waters working their way down the Cape Fear River will also enhance the flooding along the banks of the lower Cape Fear River including Brunswick County. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107- 109. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...VAO MARINE...DCH/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...