Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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007 FXUS63 KIWX 242351 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 751 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early this evening. A few storms in northeast Indiana, south- central Michigan and northwest Ohio could become severe. * Seasonable temperatures and periodic chances for showers late this week through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and storms remain the main focus this afternoon into early this evening. As of 18z, there is a ~1008 sfc low just now entering nw IN with a warm front extending east into nrn IN and nw OH. These sfc features will continue to lift north toward the MI border this afternoon in advance an incoming shortwave impulse. Showers/storms will accompany this system given the ongoing ample moisture transport within broad isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave. The main area of interest is still into mainly eastern portions of the FA where a muddled warm sector is building in with MLCAPE nearing 1000 j/g under 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear. SPC Marginal Risk appears reasonable in this environment with low LCL heights hinting at the low chance for an isolated weak tornado/landspout, with isolated wind damage the primary threat. The overall severe threat is limited by meager lapse rates and lacking heating thanks to cloud cover. A few showers may linger within the lingering shear axis tonight, mainly near Lake MI due to some minor lake enhancement. Kept fog and stratus in the grids otherwise overnight into early tomorrow given lingering moist low levels and light winds. The shear axis and/or trailing inverted trough does slowly slide east through the area on Wednesday. The result is a non- zero chance for a few showers/drizzle, though the strip away of moisture in the mid levels and weak forcing in between upper level systems may preclude isolated light showers from developing. Thursday is likely a dry and seasonable day before daily rain shower chances return Friday through early next week. Tropical cyclone remnants lifting north from the Gulf of Mexico look to get absorbed into a leftover closed low over the lower-mid MS Valley later Thursday through Saturday, before opening slowly northeast toward the Great Lakes region Sunday into early next week. The best opportunity for rain locally look to be Saturday and beyond, though confidence regarding track/evolution of these merging features is low. Temperatures should be pretty close to seasonal norms otherwise. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 743 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A dampening upper level short wave will continue to depart to the east this evening with potential of showers having diminished for the terminals. Cold front tracking across the region will result in winds veering light northwest. Residual low level moisture and light post-frontal winds should result in fog/stratus development this evening into early Wednesday. Have kept with theme of previous forecast with IFR conditions, but LIFR conditions are a possibility. A few light showers are possible on Wednesday as some moisture wraps around broad Lower MS upper low, but probabilities appear too low to mention at this time. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili