Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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066 FXUS62 KJAX 210000 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Little change in the forecast update with just slight adjustments for remaining isolated showers for inland zones near and west of I-75. These showers will likely fade over the next hour. A few showers and storms will be possible offshore the St Johns and Flagler county coasts for tonight so slight expansion of POPs there. Patchy fog expected late night inland areas with localized dense fog possible, if any, would be over inland southeast GA where the winds should be lighter there. Slight tweak to increase min temps as well. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Widely scattered showers still expected across NE FL/Coastal SE GA this afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and Northeast winds increase to 10-15G20 mph, and while an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, storm chances remain around 10% or less through sunset. Light Northeast flow will remain in place tonight as weak high pressure builds north of the region, with winds remaining in the 5-10G15 mph range along the Atlantic Coast, but falling to 5 mph or less over inland areas under Mostly clear skies. This may be enough onshore flow to push a few of the showers over the Atlantic Coastal waters into the NE FL beachfront locations towards sunrise Saturday morning, but overall rainfall chances tonight remain along the coast remain around 20% or less. Further inland expect winds to become near calm towards sunrise Saturday morning & under mostly clear skies and temps falling into the upper 60s, expect at least some patchy fog development from the US 17/301 corridors inland to the I-75 corridor but too early to determine location of any locally dense fog development. Closer to the Atlantic Coast the onshore will keep milder conditions with lows in the lower/middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Breezy east to northeast winds and drier conditions will prevail this weekend with high pressure northeast of the region and weak coastal troughs offshore of the local Atlantic seaboard. The best chance of coastal showers will focus along the northeast FL Atlantic coast, with rain chances shifting inland into the afternoons where a thunderstorm will be possible generally south of a St. Augustine to Gainesville line. With drier air in place and mostly clear skies overnight, patchy to areas of inland fog are expected each night. High temperatures will trend near to above normal values in the 80s with mild lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The main weather impact this weekend will be a continuation of Tidal Flooding along the local Atlantic coast, ICWW and within the St. Johns River basin. Most locations will top out in the "Minor" tidal flooding category, with a few locations along the St. Johns basin from Mayport toward the Trout River potentially nearing the "Moderate" threshold. At this time, the Coastal Flood Advisory to highlight mainly nuisance tidal flooding around high tides continues through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Mon & Tue...A drier pattern continues through mid-week with a warming trend as an upper level ridge builds across the Gulf Coast region with a dry NNW flow aloft keeping frontal systems well north of the area and PWAT falling to < 1.2 inches by Tuesday. At the surface, the surface ridge will build southward with a ridge axis extending across the local area Monday and Tuesday continuing a dominant ESE flow and east coast sea breeze. Temperatures will moderate above normal values with highs in the low 90s well inland to mid 80s coast, with seasonally cool lows given the dry air with values in the mid 60s to low 70s. Wed & Thu...Moisture begins to return with a focus on the Gulf of Mexico and the ultimate evolution and track of a potential tropical system. Regardless of exact track, for the local area rain chances begin to increase with high temperatures trending lower with the increase in cloud cover and storminess. Use this weekend to restock supply kits and review family evacuation plans. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Little change in the thinking for the TAFs for tonight with some MVFR to IFR expected at VQQ, and MVFR for GNV. Rough estimated timing for vsby problems will be from 06z to 12z, with GNV vsby chances a bit more short-lived. Uncertainty about any flight problems for SSI, but most guidance suggests that SSI may stay VFR tonight, though NAM is more aggressive with cig problems there. Some 6SM vsby shown for JAX and CRG, with slightly higher winds above the surface that should hinder fog formation. VFR for all TAFs by 13z-14z, with developing scattered to possibly broken cumulus by late morning and aftn. A few showers may near SGJ during the day. Sfc winds will be light east- northeast this evening and diminish overnight. Stronger northeasterly winds on Saturday of about 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Northeast winds will increase over the local waters tonight as an area of high pressure builds northeast of the region. As winds and seas increase late tonight into Saturday, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected. By Sunday, winds veer onshore as the high weakens and build ENE of the region. A weak pressure pattern develops Monday and continues through mid-week as high pressure extends offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast. Rip Currents: There will be a moderate risk of rip currents today with risk increasing to High by Saturday as surf heights rise amid the breezy onshore flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 228 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Minor coastal (tidal) flooding is will continue through the weekend for the Atlantic, ICWW and St. Johns River basin where a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect. Flooding impacts will be mainly nuisance tidal flooding and greatest around times of high tide. High tide crests and inundation extended will subside Sunday into into Monday for most locations as astronomical departures decrease and onshore flow weakens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 84 73 84 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 70 86 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 SGJ 73 86 74 86 / 10 20 10 10 GNV 69 89 70 90 / 0 10 20 10 OCF 70 90 71 91 / 0 20 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-133-137-138-225-325. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$