223
FXUS63 KLBF 260843
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues through Sunday followed by a weak cold
  front Monday and a second next Wednesday.

- No rain the next 7 days.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across western
  Nebraska today. The concern is low humidity and winds gusting
  25 to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A weak sfc pressure trof across wrn Nebraska will remain stationary
today with south winds ahead of the trof, or dryline. To the west,
light west winds develop. The forecast temperatures today opens wide
using the short term model blend plus the NBM 95th percentile for
highs in the 80s and 90s. 850-300mb RH is only 20 percent and this
will support strong heating for this time of the year.

A back door cold front will reach nwrn Nebraska late tonight and the
remainder of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday. There is still room for
above normal temperatures Friday and the guidance blend suggested
highs in the 80s. A slight increase in moisture is expected behind
the front but generally clear skies should prevail. H850
temperatures drop a few degrees behind the front.

The wind forecast today through Friday uses the short term model
blend plus bias correction plus the NBM 50th percentile. The wind
forecast today is slightly higher than the 500m AGL winds and h850mb
winds but lines up fairly close to the model consensus of 13 models.
Forecast speeds of around 20 mph are in place with gusts to near 30.
The gusts might be too strong given h850mb winds suggest gusts to
just 25 mph. If the 500m winds and h850mb winds are correct, speeds
near Valentine will be 18 mph gusting to around 25 mph. It`s worth
noting the consensus of 13 models are tightly clustered around 17kts
or 19 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Warm weather will continue Saturday and Sunday followed by a
strong Pacific cold front Monday, perhaps followed by a second
Wednesday. The warm weather is supporting by two features; a
building h500mb ridge centered over the swrn U.S. and strong sfc low
pressure circulating across cntl Canada.

Weak north winds aloft today through Sunday are associated with the
h500mb ridge across the southwest U.S.. The ridge will flatten and
transition to a fast northwest flow Monday through Wednesday. Clear
skies should rule Saturday and Sunday with h850-300mb hovering
between 20 and 30 percent. A slight increase in upper level moisture
is indicated in the models Monday and Tuesday. This might support
some scattered high clouds, or cirrus. Otherwise clear skies and
seasonable temperatures are in place Monday through Wednesday
associated with Pacific high pressure.

The forecast is dry today through Wednesday. The grand ensemble of
the GEFS, ENS and GEPS show precipitable water around 0.65 inches
today falling to 0.50 inches this weekend and remaining below 0.75
inches next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds
overnight will be out of the south to southeast around 5 to 10
kts. Winds will then increase by late morning out of the south,
with sustained winds around 10 to 20 kts and gust of 20 to 30
kts, strongest winds will be across the northern Sandhills,
including KVTN terminal. Winds will then decrease near sunset
to around 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Little if any rainfall is expected across western and north
central Nebraska during the next 7 days.

South winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 25 to 30 mph are expected
east of highway 61 today. Afternoon humidity will fall to around 20
percent in this area supporting elevated fire weather conditions.
Cooler air associated with a weak cold front Friday will lessen fire
weather concerns. Thereafter, very dry air and temperatures in the
80s to lower 90s this weekend will pose elevated to critical fire
weather conditions. South winds of 20 to 25 mph may develop across
western Nebraska Sunday and critical fire weather conditions are
possible.

Dry air and cooler weather are likely Monday through Wednesday
and it appears fire weather conditions will remain elevated.
The risk of strong winds is uncertain.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...CDC