Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
508 FXUS64 KLCH 210242 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 942 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge extending from East Texas/Louisiana northeastward, giving a weak pressure gradient over the region. Winds are light and variable to calm inland, and from the south around 5 kts across the coastal waters. Radar showing a persistent shower around 15-20 miles south of Marsh Island this evening, with no precipitation detected inland. With the exception of the shower noted, satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies across the remainder of the coastal waters and inland areas. Patchy fog will be possible once again towards daybreak Saturday for most of the area. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Forecast on track with no updates needed at this time. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Looking at the current pattern, an upper-level ridge extends across the southern plains towards the northeast and is working together with a high-pressure system that is located across the Gulf Coast. This one-two combo will limit rain with rain chances to near zero through the weekend with higher chances along the coast. During this time the high pressure will keep our winds light and variable. Temperatures will be elevated each day this weekend, with high temperatures in the 90s and low temperatures in the mid-70s. Dew points will also be in the mid-70s. When combined with light and variable winds, it will support the development of fog each morning. A combination of the low winds and high dewpoints could lead to widespread fog across Acadiana. While the NAM model shows dense fog that would require a dense fog advisory, no other model shows that happening so we will hold off on any advisories right now. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Long-term conditions will remain hot and dry, with daytime temperatures several degrees above normal for this time of year. The broad ridge will continue to dominate our weather pattern for the first half of the week. Starting around midweek, a shortwave trough will begin to move across the Midwest and will drive a cold front south towards the coast. This front will be diffuse by the time it reaches us, with the main impact being our winds shifting to come from north. While the front will drop our temperatures and dew points to more enjoyable levels, don`t expect fall-like conditions yet. Models are in large disagreement on the location and strength of the front, especially in regards to precipitation, so make sure to stay tuned to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Afternoon clouds will continue to dissipate this evening, leaving generally clear skies in place overnight. Outside of some patchy fog developing late tonight, VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Any vsby reductions to fog will likely only last a few hours, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Light and variable winds will trend more southeasterly by Saturday afternoon with speeds less than 10 KT. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 High pressure offshore will continue the trend of hot, dry and calm conditions. Seas are below 2 feet and will stay there through the weekend. In addition winds will be light and variable. The pattern will start to change around midweek as a front moves offshore, increasing winds. In the Gulf the NHC has a 50% region for development of a tropical cyclone. There is little consistency between individual models or model run-to-run consistency. It will be important to keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 75 91 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 75 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 76 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14