Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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388 FXUS64 KLCH 222007 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Ridging aloft has weakened overnight and will continue to weaken at the start of the work week. Meanwhile, the surface high has shifted to the east. This change in our synoptic pattern will allow high temperatures to lessen and increase our rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. PoPs will still be on the lower side, around 20%. Monday and Tuesday will see our moisture levels increase as our winds become onshore. This increase in moisture will help keep PoPs elevated, especially near the coast. Unfortunately, the additional moisture will keep our apparent temperatures near 100 degrees, so relief from the heat will have to wait until Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Two main features will define the long-term forecast for our area. The first feature is a developing tropical system in the Caribbean, which the NHC has given an 80% chance of developing in the next seven days. Recent model runs have been more aggressive with this system, and the NHC has upped the chance for development to 40% in the next 48 hours. Recent model runs have also kept this feature on the eastern side of the Gulf, but there is still uncertainty with the exact track of this system. Monitoring this forecast will be a top priority for the next several days. The second feature will be a weak cold front that will move across the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday looks like the best day for rain, with widespread PoPs around 50%. The front will continue to move south, pushing well into the Gulf by next weekend. Behind the front will be a continental dry airmass that will drop our temperatures and dew points into much more enjoyable levels. North winds will help keep our high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions will continue through most of the TAF forecast. Patchy fog will form around 09Z then faded away by 12 to 13Z. Winds will be light and variable for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will gradually shift east while low pressure moves across the plains today into early week. Onshore winds will increase through Tuesday along with an increase in showers. Wave will remain below 3 feet through mid week. NHC is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Currently the hurricane center is giving the area a 80% chance of development with 40% over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is anticipated to lift north through the eastern gulf late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 10 30 LCH 73 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 30 LFT 74 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 75 92 75 91 / 0 10 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...14