Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
560 FXUS64 KLIX 201741 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 We continue to see additional drying across the area, shown in the 12z sounding this morning with a PW of 1.50". This keeps PoPs ~0% for today, but can`t rule out an isolated shower offshore. Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon for the majority of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 PW values of 1.6" and deep suppression will continue to make for low precip chances across the area today and Saturday. The strong moist sfc inversion will also make shallow fog again this morning which should remain in and around river valleys. This should not cause poor vis on major roadways but some secondary roads near these rivers could be impacted. Radiation fog could form again Sat morning and the same reasoning should be the case as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The large stacked high is now parked over TX and should remain there for the weekend. This will help keep the area fairly dry over much of the weekend. The upper trough off the west coast will eventually start moving east causing this large high to flatten by Sunday into the new work week. This troughing should help bring the next chances for rain as it draws gulf moisture back into the gulf coast. This should be the fcast from Tue through the remainder of the week. The next thing we will begin to look for is any changes to the very extended portion of the fcast concerning tropical development. The only thing that can be told at this moment is to keep up with the latest fcast changes through the next 7 to 10 days. Models are having an absolute melt down on how to handle the area that the hurricane center has wrapped in 40% for development. Placement and timing is literally all over the place with this and this will likely continue until or if something evolves from the outlooked area. Most guidance does point at the possibility of two areas of low pressure developing and that the system is trying to convert into more of a baroclinic system with time. And this may be why they are struggling. We are no where even close to solving any details with this as far out in time as we are but it will continue to be closely watched. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 All terminals VFR this afternoon and likely remain that way through the majority of the forecast period. Western areas may see some light patchy fog in the early morning hours Saturday, but this dissipates after sunrise. Otherwise light and variable winds with no convection expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Winds become more stable and established from the east and rise to around 10-15kt over the weekend. These conditions should be the rule for the next several days along with a few sh/ts that may develop over nearshore waters. The hurricane center has an area outlooked at 40% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the NW Caribbean and SE gulf. Remain updated to future fcasts concerning this area over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 73 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 72 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...HL MARINE...TE