801
FXUS64 KLIX 262055
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene now a category 3 hurricane continue to move to the NNE
towards the Florida Big Bend area and is expected to make landfall
this evening south of Tallahassee. This will bring devastating
impacts to much of Florida and well inland. The very large wind
field and fast forward motion will keep Helene from weakening
quickly after landfall with significant wind impacts far inland.
Life-threatening surge will occur in large areas of the Florida
Big Bend area. Helene will also bring catastrophic and life-
threatening flash flooding to many areas across the southern
Appalachians and in portions of GA and northwestern and northern
FL. If you have friends or family in these areas please make sure
they are aware of the dangers and are prepared. As for the local
area the only impacts we will see will be marine hazards.

Tonight through the weekend the forecast will be quiet pleasant,
especially overnight. Main features that will dictate much of the
forecast is obviously Helene but also the large closed low over the
MO boot-heel and sliding south. That low and the ridge over the
western Atlantic are what are steering Helene to the NNE and then
north later tonight. Helene and the closed mid lvl low will do their
dance with the mid lvl system sliding south and then southeast
tonight and tomorrow while Helene tracks north and then to the
northwest across the TN Valley. What does this mean for us, well
rather pleasant weather. We already had a weak cold front drop
through late yesterday and last night and with Helene well off to
our east it will help pull down even drier air over the next 24 to
36 hours. LL temps will also cool a touch but the most noticeable
thing will be the humidity as we dry out. This will provide us very
pleasant overnight conditions with lows tomorrow morning and through
the weekend in to the upper 50s to mid 60s for much of the area.
Even though those lows don`t seem overly cold the dry air will allow
us to cool more quickly in the early evening making those Friday
night football games much more tolerable. Highs will be on the
cooler side tomorrow with h925 temps of 20-22C. This will lead to
highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s across the region. LL temps do
moderate some heading into the weekend which will allow for a few
lower 90s but given the drier air should feel far better than last
weekend. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Forecast remains quiet through the extended with no appreciable
rain in the forecast till possibly the 2nd half of next week. Our
closed mid lvl low should finally pull out to the northeast Monday
with a trough lingering over the area through midweek. We won`t
see any real return flow set back up till late next week so any
moisture recovery will be slow which will allow pleasant
conditions to continue overnight and early in the morning. Heading
into the end of the week models are wavering on the timing of a
ridge building in or another s/w trying to slide into the area. At
the same time there are some indications that a current tropical
wave in the Caribbean could try to develop as it moves across the
western Caribbean and into the southern Gulf. This is still 7-10
days away and something to just keep an eye on until there is a
little more consensus on what if anything develops. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

All terminals are in VFR status and should remain so through the
forecast. The only small issue is breazy northerly winds but that
should have little to no real impacts on flights. Any imapcts from
Helene reamin WELL off to the east. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The one area where we are seeing impacts is across the outer
waters. The deepening hurricane Helene is helping to intensify the
pressure gradient across the region and thus winds have picked up
and we are starting to see a few Gale Force gusts. A Gale Warning
remains in effect till 6z tonight for much of our outer waters.
Helene is picking up speed and should quickly pull off to the
north with winds relaxing overnight but small craft advisory
conditions will continue into tomorrow. Already seeing wave
heights of 10-12` at buoy 42040 and these will continue to ramp up
over the next few hours as waves and even swells from Helene push
out this way. The one very odd thing was some minor coastal
flooding at Waveland (WYCM6) even with offshore winds. There are
some indications that there could be slightly even more issues in
Hancock county from coastal flooding but completely disregarding
this as the persistent offshore winds should really pull the water
out. So unless there is that much water being driven this way
from Helene even with the strong northerly winds, have a hard time
seeing this occur again tomorrow. Conditions improve quickly late
tomorrow with nice weather on the water through the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  82  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  62  87  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  63  84  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  66  85  69  88 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  64  84  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  65  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ572-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB