Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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059 FXUS64 KLUB 240533 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Light and variable winds this afternoon as a weak surface ridge passes across the forecast area into central Texas. Winds will become southerly by this evening and bring back low-level moisture into the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Low clouds may fill in across the aforementioned area, but confidence is low on the overall extent of this cloud deck. In the wake of the recent trough axis, a shortwave will dig into the Central and Southern Plains tonight into tomorrow. A weak lee low will develop across eastern Colorado tonight and push south into West Texas tomorrow. Winds will stay mostly south-southwesterly and light through the morning hours tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will enter the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South and Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours. Clear, sunny skies ahead of the front and downsloping winds will bring back above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a few spotty lower 90s off the Caprock. A few isolated showers and storms may develop along the frontal boundary as it pushes southward through the afternoon, mainly across the far southeast Texas Panhandle into the Rolling Plains. A storm could become strong with gusty winds the main threat, but overall severe weather is not expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of the Rolling Plains from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as a cold front moves southward through the region. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-level pattern across the Lower 48 will begin to significantly amplify via the intrusion of an intense, anticyclonically-curved 250 mb jet streak translating across Canada, with its downstream tranche and related exit regions nosing southward over the Mississippi River Basin. On Tuesday night, the CWA will be positioned beneath the right-exit region of this 250 mb jet streak, and largely within the inflection point of the sharply cyclonic, positively-tilted trough with its base pivoting over the Ozark Mountains; and the amplifying, subtropical ridge over the Intermountain West. Passage of the mid-level and surface cold front will occur during this time, with isolated storms possible along the front across the Rolling Plains as it moves southward during the nighttime hours in Wednesday. PoPs were trimmed further downward from the blended initialization owing to the expectation for NVA to advect in quickly overhead, but remnant frontogenetical forcing, in addition to a residual EML and available moist ascent in the pre-frontal sector, yields some degree of confidence to maintain at least isolated PoPs through the early morning hours Wednesday before storm chances wane entirely prior to sunrise. Severe storms are not expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Post-frontal pressure rises will not be strong as the front will begin to lose its baroclinity with only a weak surface anticyclone forming in its wake, thus winds will remain light post-FROPA, though high temperatures on Wednesday will be about 5-8 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Global NWP guidance suites are in agreement with the development of a pseudo-Omega Block pattern developing across the U.S. by mid-week and lasting through at least the end of the week, with the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge eclipsing the High Plains. Dry and warm conditions are reflected as persistence forecasting will yield similar boundary-layer profiles each day and night amidst light winds. Temperatures will also cool off into the middle 50s through the end of the period. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Continued VFR with FROPA and light N winds impacting all sites late this afternoon. A few caveats include a window for patchy morning FG near LBB and also a few TS at CDS during FROPA. Both of these threats are very conditional and will be revisited in later TAFs. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93