Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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434 FXUS64 KLZK 231720 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Regional composite reflectivity depicted ongoing precip acrs much of Wrn AR and Nrn AR/Srn MO, asctd w/ a cdfrnt advancing thru the Srn Plains. This cdfrnt wl cont to move S/Ewrd slowly thru the day today, and serve as the focus for additional convective activity later this aftn/evng acrs portions of Wrn Cntrl, Cntrl, and Nrn Cntrl to Ern AR. W/ the cdfrnt in place acrs at least N/Wrn AR by later this mrng, asctd Bkn to Ovc cloud cover wl be in place, alongside Sctd showers and isolated convective activity thru the mrng hrs. This should keep temps over much of the Ozarks cooler today, w/ readings in the mid 70s. Along and ahead of the advancing frnt, temps are still set to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by this aftn. Regarding thunderstorm and severe wx potential later this aftn, a similar pattern as Sun is expected, w/ the corridor of convective activity extending acrs a larger swath of Nrn to Cntrl and Ern AR invof the frnt. Incrsg cloud cover and weaker mid-level lapse rates should contribute to less impressive vertical buoyancy profiles thru this aftn to evng, w/ generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, overlaid by sufficient bulk shear in excess of 30 to 40 kts. Sctd clusters of thunderstorms are progged to initiate b/w 18-21z acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA, and then move Ewrd into a more favorable environment along and ahead of the cdfrnt. Generally, some isolated instances of hail and strong to damaging wind gusts wl be possible w/ these storms thru the aftn to evng hrs later today. In addition to isolated severe wx, some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall acrs Nrn AR this aftn, and yield some local flooding issues. Mon night and thru Tues, the aforementioned cdfrnt should cont to move S/Ewrd, and clear the state sometime later Tues mrng. Covg of precip wl linger acrs the Ern portions of the FA thru the day Tues, w/ cooler temps overspreading the state in the wake of the frnt. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The mid work-week through the end of the weekend will overall be an unsettled pattern across the CWA and state of Arkansas. A H500 closed low will become cutoff from the flow pattern over the Middle Mississippi River Valley region of the CONUS between two areas of amplified ridging: one area of ridging over the Western CONUS and a second area over the far Southeastern region of the CONUS. Later into the work-week, the cutoff low is progged to move over Arkansas and meander over or in close proximity of Arkansas through the end of the work-week and through the weekend. The upper lvl cutoff low will likely begin to interact with the approaching tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico which is likely to be Helene at this point of the forecast, but confidence remains low of exactly how these two upper lvl features will react, but the cutoff low is a major driving force in speeding up the process of reeling in the tropical system to progress quickly northward and make landfall sooner than expected along the Gulf Coast than if this feature was not present. Back to the CWA, Arkansas, and putting this altogether; During the middle of the work-week Arkansas will see increased chances for post- frontal POPs given the placement of a frontal boundary near the I-55 corridor within Mississippi. Into late work-week and the weekend a sfc low with a sfc trof is expected to be fixated across the CWA which will promote sfc convergence and rising air that will likely become adequate cloud cover and equate to rain and an isolated thunderstorm or two for portions of the CWA and state of Arkansas. Confidence overall does lower significantly given specifics through the weekend as the track of the tropical system likely to be developed at this point named Helene will greatly impact our forecast despite most of the latest ensembles keeping the system after landfall east of the CWA in the Deep South to Mid-South regions of the CONUS; however, a few do move the remnants of the expected tropical system into the Natural State. We should begin to paint a clearer picture over the next couple of days given more model data, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance, and additional upper air radiosonde flights that will be conducted across the South and Southeast portions of the CONUS to better forecast where this tropical system which as of writing this remains only an invest in the Gulf of Mexico, but will likely become Helene in the near future. The key takeaway from the long-term forecast discussion or forecast across the CWA from mid work-week through the weekend is to expect numerous rain and isolated thunderstorm chances with a tradeoff of temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures that will be near to below average compared to climatological normals for this time of the year given increased cloud cover and increased POPs across the CWA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A Low pressure system and cold front are moving across the region, producing rainshowers and thunderstorms. These storms are expected to begin to develop by mid- to late-afternoon. Some of the storms may become strong to severe, especially across central to north/northeast Arkansas. Elsewhere across the forecast area, isolated showers and storms will be possible through Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions due to lowered ceilings are expected to impact all terminals, especially during periods of persistent precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 81 61 75 / 60 10 20 40 Camden AR 68 85 64 78 / 50 20 30 40 Harrison AR 60 75 55 73 / 50 10 20 30 Hot Springs AR 65 85 63 80 / 40 10 30 40 Little Rock AR 68 85 65 79 / 50 10 30 30 Monticello AR 71 86 66 79 / 40 30 20 40 Mount Ida AR 61 84 59 80 / 30 0 30 40 Mountain Home AR 62 77 58 75 / 70 10 20 30 Newport AR 67 81 62 76 / 60 20 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 68 84 64 77 / 60 20 30 40 Russellville AR 63 83 60 79 / 50 0 30 30 Searcy AR 67 83 62 77 / 50 10 20 40 Stuttgart AR 69 83 64 77 / 60 20 30 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...71