Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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885 FXUS64 KMAF 231756 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current satellite and observations show low clouds have moved into the area. These clouds will remain through this morning before scattering out this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will offset the increased insolation and highs this afternoon should hold below normal with readings in the 70s to low 80s providing a beautiful day. The jet stream is centered over the CWA and will provide enough instability that isolated to widely scattered showers are expected between the I-10/I-20 corridors later today. Surface high pressure behind the front quickly sags southeast providing a return of warmer southeasterly winds overnight. In addition, increasing subsidence Tuesday behind a departing upper trough axis will cause temperatures to rebound back into the 80s. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A secondary shortwave trough will dig into the Great Plains amid the larger longwave troughing across the Great Lakes to southern Great Plains. This secondary shortwave trough pushes a reinforcing cold front south through our region early on Wednesday. Continued rain chances may accompany this front across eastern portions of the area, but drier and more stable air quickly filters in behind it, ending rainfall potential. Cooler, below normal temperatures arrive behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon with lower 80s for most of the region. Similarly, a cool night in the upper 50s and low 60s is expected. The remainder of the week into next weekend sees a quieter weather pattern return to the southern Great Plains. A closed upper-low is forecast to develop and remain nearly stationary over the lower Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, an upper-high develops and strengthens near the Four Corners. Our region resides between these features, keeping a largely dry continental airmass filtering into the region. This means no hope for any rainfall beyond Wednesday. On the bright side, temperatures should remain pleasant and near normal through the end of this week. Temperatures may climb to near 90 this weekend, a tad above normal for this time of year as the upper-high shifts slightly further east. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A clearing line is noted on satellite extending southwest- northeast from roughly Valentine through Pecos to Snyder. Southeast of this line, MVFR to IFR conditions have been stubborn to lift, with VFR conditions noted to the northwest of this line. We expect conditions to improve to VFR at KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ during the early afternoon hours, but MVFR conditions are expected to persist at KFST. There`s abundant signals across the short- range model guidance that IFR to LIFR conditions will develop along and north of this boundary before daybreak, impacting KMAF in the 24/11Z to 24/15Z range. There is strong (> 80 percent) confidence that KMAF will fall into the IFR range by 11Z, with medium (~ 40 percent) confidence that LIFR conditions including visibilities at or below 1/4SM within the same time frame at KMAF. Conditions should remain VFR elsewhere, with conditions becoming VFR at KMAF after 24/15Z. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 88 65 83 / 20 10 10 10 Carlsbad 60 89 62 86 / 0 10 0 10 Dryden 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 64 89 63 86 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 59 82 61 79 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 59 86 60 84 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 59 84 58 82 / 20 40 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 63 87 65 83 / 20 10 10 10 Odessa 64 87 65 84 / 10 10 10 10 Wink 64 90 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...70