Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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257 ACUS11 KWNS 270159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270159 KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-270300- Mesoscale Discussion 0999 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Far Southwest OH...Central/Eastern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 270159Z - 270300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe gust and QLCS circulations will likely continue into far southwest Ohio and central/eastern Kentucky, and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed across the region to address this potential. DISCUSSION...Well-organized convective line continues to move eastward across southwest IN, southern IL, and far southwest KY at around 50 to 55 kt. This storm motion takes the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 324 at 0330Z to 0400Z. The airmass over the region is only weakly buoyant right now, but increasing low to mid-level moisture ahead of the line should promote the development of modest buoyancy. This buoyancy will be aided by strong low-level shear. Recent 00Z BNA sounding sampled strong low-level flow veering with height, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity over 330 m2/s2. Recent JKL VAD sampled this increasing low-level flow as well, with 0-1 storm-relative helicity over 400 m2/s2. Given the favorable kinematics and organized character to the ongoing line, the expectation is that the threat for severe gusts and QLCS tornado circulations will continue into the region. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed across the region to address this potential. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38838527 39338447 39038327 38288260 36768306 36638453 37188512 38838527