284
ACUS11 KWNS 272210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272210
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272210Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a severe
wind/hail risk as they move out of eastern Iowa and into far
northwest Illinois. However, a gradual weakening trend is
anticipated towards central IL later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern IA
continue to show periodic intensification to severe limits based on
regional velocity data and MRMS vertical ice/MESH metrics. Recent
RAP mesoanalyses continue to show a supportive thermodynamic
environment across eastern IA into northwest IL with MLCAPE around
500 J/kg and nearly straight hodographs are noted in regional VWPs
with around 30 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this activity appears
to be slowly outrunning the cooler temperatures aloft and better
low-level moisture that is supporting the buoyancy (downstream
observations across central to northern IL show dewpoints mixing out
into the upper 40s and low 50s). Some severe wind/hail threat will
continue for the next few hours, but a gradual weakening trend
appears likely as storms move deeper into IL later this evening.
Given the limited environment and coverage of the threat, watch
issuance is not anticipated.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42179189 42509150 42579091 42388959 41788829 41528816
            40938820 40478854 39878919 39738976 39729044 39909112
            40229190 40499234 40889252 41339253 41849216 42179189