Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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882 FXUS64 KMEG 220448 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will weaken on Monday, suppressed by an upper level low pressure system extending from the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along an accompanying cold front as it enters the Midsouth Monday afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible north of Interstate 40, with a Marginal Risk for damaging winds and large hail. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Upper level ridging will be a little stronger over the Midsouth on Sunday, as heights briefly amplify in advance of a positive- tilted trough lifting out of the central Rockies. By Monday afternoon, this trough will provide sufficient height falls for scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. A weak surface cold front will provide some focus for convection, but uncertainty remains with respect to warm sector clouds and instability. 0-6km bulk shear around 35 knots will aid storm organization potential. Midlevel lapse rates appear supportive for marginally-severe hail, but damaging winds will be primary threat if surface-based instability potential is realized. The weak cold front will stall across the Midsouth on Tuesday, becoming parallel with the west-southwesterly flow aloft. Medium range guidance consensus drops a deepening closed low from the Missouri River Valley into the western Ozarks on Wednesday. Tropical moisture may become entrained in the strengthening south-southwesterly flow ahead of this low, depending on developments in the Gulf of Mexico. Clouds and low end rain chances will continue over the Midsouth through mid to late week, with seasonal daytime temperatures. Late week rain chances may edge upward in future forecasts, depending on the evolution of the closed low over the southern plains and potential tropical system development in the Gulf of Mexico. PWB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions continue. Winds will become southwesterly/westerly through the daytime, before settling back to southerly after 00Z. Some -SHRA may begin to move into the area near the end of the current TAF period, but not enough confidence to include for JBR this TAF cycle. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...CMA