Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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248 FXUS62 KMFL 211902 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 302 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Drier air in the wake of a boundary that has slipped south and east into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas has settled over southern Florida. Additionally, mid-level high pressure is extending from over the Gulf of Mexico. The 12z MFL sounding showed a drier atmosphere with a precipitable water value of 1.74 inches. The light, generally northerly drainage flow through the weekend will keep remoistening somewhat limited for the majority of the area. The sea and lake breezes that develop and advance inland will help bring a more locally moist airmass that could help spur and support convection, but in general, activity should be more limited in coverage compared to previous days this week. With less cloud cover and convection, high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast each afternoon with max heat index values that hoover from the upper 90s to around 103. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Mid level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to slide eastward over the region through the early to middle portion of the week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Southeast will gradually push into the western Atlantic as the middle of the week approaches. At the same time, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the south over the Florida Keys. As the area of high pressure shifts eastward, the pressure gradient across the region will tighten which will allow for easterly wind flow to increase. With the influence of mid level ridging overhead combined with surface high pressure to the north, a drier air mass will remain parked over South Florida through the early portion of the week keeping PWAT values below 2.0 inches across most areas. While enough lower level moisture will remain in place to support daily convection development along the sea breeze boundaries, the mid level drier air will help to reduce the coverage of convection on Monday and Tuesday. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain mainly along and south of Alligator Alley during this time frame as these locations will be closer to the stalled out frontal boundary over the Keys. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Heading into the middle and end of next week, the forecast becomes highly uncertain as all eyes turn towards a tropical disturbance in the Carribean Sea. Rather large differences remain in the latest ensemble and global guidance in regards to potential development moving forward. As of 2 PM, the National Hurricane Center still gives this disturbance a 60 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. Until an area of low pressure forms, guidance will still have difficulties resolving this feature and forecast uncertainty will remain high during this time period. For now, as winds gradually veer and become southeast, deep moisture advection will gradually take place heading towards the end of the week. This will result in the coverage of the daily convection to increase during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle to the end of the week will generally range from the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A few storms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR conditions should prevail today. Generally VFR conditions tonight with light and variable wind; some inland patchy fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Generally light winds continue through Sunday with a decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Minor coastal flooding will continue to affect all coastal areas of South Florida around high tide today and tonight. Conditions should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal flooding during high tide. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been transitioned to a Coastal Flood Statement through Sunday evening. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days. High Tide Tides... Virginia Key - 12:18 PM Sat, 12:28 AM Sun, 1:13 PM Sun South Port Everglades - 11:35 AM Sat, 11:46 PM Sat, 12:30 PM Sun Lake Worth Pier - 11:18 AM Sat, 11:30 PM Sat, 12:14 PM Sun Naples Bay, North - 4:38 PM Sat, 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:56 PM Sat, 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 91 77 90 / 20 30 20 30 West Kendall 74 92 75 91 / 20 30 20 30 Opa-Locka 76 92 77 91 / 20 30 20 30 Homestead 76 91 76 90 / 20 30 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 91 78 90 / 20 30 20 30 Pembroke Pines 76 93 78 92 / 10 30 20 30 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 90 / 20 20 20 30 Boca Raton 76 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 30 Naples 75 91 76 93 / 30 20 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...RAG