251
FXUS66 KMFR 261546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
846 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus
confined to the coast just south of Gold Beach, around Coos Bay
and inland over most of the Umpqua Basin, and parts of the
Coquille Basin. Adjustments were made to the sky cover to better
reflect this for this morning. The marine stratus will be slow to
burn off for the interior, but it should clear out late this
morning.

Today will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the
interior. A weak front will brush by to our north Friday morning
and could bring a few sprinkles in far northwest Douglas County
early Friday morning, otherwise were looking at dry weather to
continue for the next several days. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAFS...Along the coast and just offshore.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue for most of the morning hours
around North Bend and just south of Gold Beach, including
Brookings. The TAF at North Bend shows improving conditions at
18z, but it`s possible it could improve an hour earlier. VFR
conditions are expected for the afternoon, before marine stratus
develops again early this evening and continues into Friday
morning with IFR ceilings, especially from Cape Blanco north.

Inland, marine stratus is confined to the Umpqua Basin, Including
Roseburg and it will be slow to burn off during the morning.
Guidance shows Roseburg clearing out towards 19z, which looks
reasonable given the extent and depth of the marine layer. Once
the marine stratus burn off, VFR conditions are expected for the
afternoon into most of tonight. A front could bring clouds back
into the Umpqua late tonight, but ceilings should remain VFR with
the terrain partly obscured towards 12z.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
-Petrucelli




&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM, September 26, 2024...Conditions will
remain relatively calm through this evening.

Steep northwest swell will build into the area by Friday morning,
and will continue through Saturday. Meanwhile, the thermal trough
will reestablish itself along the coast Friday, producing gusty
north winds and steep wind-driven seas. This combination of
conditions will result in a period of chaotic and potentially
hazardous seas Saturday, then on Sunday, swell will diminish with
winds possibly increasing to gales. Overall, expect hazardous
conditions through the weekend due to a combination of strong winds
and steep to very steep seas.

Winds and seas will ease a bit early next week, but continued north
winds and steep seas are likely to keep at least small craft
advisory conditions ongoing through at least mid-week. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$