Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
786 FXUS63 KMKX 221458 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 958 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue through this morning, slowly ending west to east late this morning into early this afternoon. - Generally expect up to an additional 0.5 inch of precipitation in southeastern Wisconsin. - Cooler/near normal temps are expected behind the cold front today through the start of the week with daily highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued 959 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Moderate steady rain has become the main precipitation across south-central to southeastern Wisconsin. The heaviest band of precipitation with rates over 1 inch per hour has moved offshore into Lake Michigan, which will allow for less ponding of water potential going into the later morning hours. Modeling continues to struggle with the deformation band duration, so forecast updates this morning into this afternoon will be primarily based on observational trends. The cold front has finally hooked into southwestern Wisconsin, and is expected to slowly progress eastward while also pushing into central Wisconsin from the north. This will cut off the moisture transport and assist with precipitation ending. Northerly winds will become gusty this afternoon, with gusts to 20 mph expected. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today through Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Wisconsin this morning ahead of and along an approaching cold front. The cold front is currently running southwest to northeast from La Crosse, to Marathon to Vilas County. The chances for any severe weather through this morning remains low with the lack of shear and very low CAPE values (roughly around 100 J/kg at most when looking at the Most Unstable CAPE). With the showers/storms out ahead of the front being sustained along an upper level shortwaves and some low level warm/moist air advection coverage is expected to continue to ebb and flow. As the more organized shortwave energy works east into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin, the coverage over eastern Wisconsin is expected to increase through roughly mid morning. The rain and storms are expected to linger into this afternoon until the front clears. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north to northwest with cold air advection kicking in. Temperatures will cool across southern Wisconsin and drier air will begin to move into the state. Another upper level shortwave trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes Region later Monday. Not expecting a lot with this shortwave, as we will be both cooler and drier. Cloud cover is expected to linger. The best chances for any shower activity will be to our south and east. In the event that the mid levels do not dry out quickly enough kept some low chance POPs in southeast Wisconsin. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tuesday through Saturday: Cooler weather is expected to persist through much of the extended with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across southern Wisconsin. A Rex blocking pattern attempts to set up across the central conus for mid to late next week which will likely keep conditions dry across much of the region. There`s still a lot of uncertatiny in this pattern, as the upper level trough is expected to dig southward into the Great Lakes Region with a few models trying to have this pattern slightly retrograde. Low chance POPs around 20% or less do sneak in among the average of model guidance during this time, which seems reasonable given the uncertainty of the location or the trough. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 959 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Ceilings will continue to bounce between VFR and IFR through this morning as precipitation slowly ends west to east and a cold front pushes through the region. IFR ceilings are widespread along and immediately behind the front itself, which are expected through much of the afternoon. Ceilings will slowly improve this evening into tonight. Northerly winds will increase through this morning, with gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible this afternoon. Winds will diminish into tonight inland, with lakeshore terminals continuing to see gusts around 15 kt. MH && .MARINE... Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Expect southerly winds increase through the evening as low pressure around 29.7 inches lifts from MN to Ontario, which will in turn drag a cold front across WI and Lake Michigan this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold front. Southwesterly winds will become northerly behind this front tonight into Monday. Given the strong cold air moving over the warmer lake waters, expecting to see gusty northerly winds during this timeframe. Gusts up to 30 knots and an occasional gale force gust cannot be ruled out, especially for the southern portions of Lake Michigan. Will see winds weaken a bit for Monday as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes region, but the northerly component will persist through the start of the week. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066...1 PM Sunday to 1 PM Monday. Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Sunday to 1 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee