246
FXUS63 KMKX 262044
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous swim conditions expected for Lake Michigan beaches
  in Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties Friday into Saturday
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Tonight through Saturday:

A mild and dry period is expected into Friday across the area,
with high pressure shifting to the east northeast of the
region. A southeast lake breeze is expected until early this
evening, with light winds this evening becoming northeast later
tonight. There may be some light fog overnight into early
Friday morning for areas along and west of the Kettle Moraine
ridge.

Gusty northeast winds are expected to develop Friday and linger
into Saturday for the southeast half of the area, as the
pressure gradient tightens with the remnants of Helene to the
south of the region.

This will bring a period of increasing waves to Lake Michigan
beaches in Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties Friday into
Saturday evening. The northeast winds and building waves will
bring a high swim risk to these areas, and a Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect. A moderate swim risk is expected for
the Lake Michigan beaches in Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties
during this period.

A few rain showers may clip southeast portions of the area
Friday night into Saturday, on the outskirts of the remnants
of Helene that will be nearly stationary in the Ohio River
Valley. No impacts are expected from this activity for our area.
Mild highs in the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees are forecast
inland each day, with lows in the 50s inland and lower 60s near
the lake.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Saturday night through Thursday:

Some showers may continue to clip southeast portions of the area
Saturday night into Sunday, as the remnants of Helene slowly
shift east across the Ohio River Valley. It should remain mild
Sunday, with highs into the upper 70s inland and lower 70s
lakeside.

A weak ridge axis continues the generally dry and mild
conditions for Monday. Models and ensembles generally show a
strong cold front pushing through the area Monday night, with
cold air advection bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Dry conditions should linger for the most part, with
most ensemble members fairly dry.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A dry period is expected into Friday across the area, with high
pressure to the east northeast of the region. The southeast
lake breeze is expected until early evening, along with the
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds. Light winds this evening will
become northeast later tonight.

There may be some light fog overnight into early Friday morning
for areas along and west of the Kettle Moraine ridge, perhaps
including the terminals at Sheboygan, Madison and Janesville.

Gusty northeast winds are expected to develop Friday and linger
into Saturday for the southeast half of the area, including the
terminals at Sheboygan, Waukesha, Milwaukee and Kenosha. Some
northeast gusts to 25 knots may occur at times for Milwaukee and
Kenosha Friday afternoon and evening.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

High pressure around 30.1 inches will shift to the east of the
region tonight into Friday. Strong low pressure less than 29.2
inches, from the remnants of Helene, will shift into the Ohio
River Valley Friday into Saturday, then slowly weaken into
Sunday. This will bring a tighter pressure gradient to far
southern Lake Michigan during most of this period.

This will result in stronger northeast winds and building waves,
and should see some gale force gusts in far southern portions of
Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and evening. A Gale Watch is in
effect.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Friday into Saturday night
for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, for the gusty
northeast winds and building waves. It remains in effect into
Sunday afternoon for areas south of North Point Lighthouse, for
lingering winds and waves.

High pressure around 30.3 inches should return for later Sunday
into the start of next week, with somewhat weaker northeast winds.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066...4 PM Friday to 1 AM Sunday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072...10 AM Friday to 1 AM
     Sunday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ878...3 PM Friday to 1 AM
     Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...1 AM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644...7 PM Friday to 1 AM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645...4 PM Friday to 4 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 4 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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