Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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191 FXUS62 KMLB 250305 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize and strengthen over the NW Caribbean this evening, and will continue to move toward the W/NW toward the Yucatan channel overnight. Low level winds are already increasing between this system and the high pressure ridge along the eastern U.S. seaboard, with 925mb winds around 15-20 knots. This will keep winds somewhat elevated overnight, with speeds around 6-11 mph along mainland areas, and breezy conditions still possible along the barrier islands, south of the Cape. Moisture will continue to gradually build northward into tonight and this will allow isolated to scattered showers to push onshore, initially along the Treasure Coast this evening and then even farther north across Brevard County overnight. A few storms may also develop over the coastal waters and push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. In terms of tropical headlines for Helene, with the 11PM update, all of east central Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning, including the adjacent Atlantic waters. The wind field will be exceptionally large, especially on the eastern side of Helene as it lifts northward and intensifies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night through Thursday. Therefore, the potential for frequent gusts to tropical storm force exists across much of the area, mainly on Thursday into Thursday evening. For additional hazard details related to Helene across east central Florida, please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by NWS Melbourne. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 813 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly VFR conditions into tonight. Isolated showers will continue to push onshore along the southern Treasure Coast this evening. The potential for these onshore moving showers will then expand northward overnight through areas near to south of the Cape, as moisture gradually builds across the area and elevated low level easterly flow continues. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two pushing onshore as well across this region, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Moisture will continue build northward across the region Wednesday, with low level winds increasing as Tropical Storm Helene moves into the Yucatan channel and is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane. Increasing bands of showers and storms are forecast across the area through the day. Greatest coverage of this activity will be south of Orlando in the morning and then expanding northward across the rest of east central Florida into the afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any showers and storms, and may begin to see some predominant MVFR cigs build into the southern half of east central FL later into the afternoon. Have VCSH eventually transitioning to VCTS into the afternoon for now, but will likely need to add some tempo groups for TSRA in later TAFs when timing confidence improves. E/SE winds will be around 6-11 knots (highest along the coast), with speeds increasing during the daytime on Wednesday and becoming breezy around 12-17 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Afternoon-Tonight...Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight. Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape for winds increasing to 15-20 kts and seas building up to 6 ft. Lower coverage of showers into tonight (20-40pct southward from near Melbourne Beach and includes ISOLD lightning storm mention) as drier air filters down from the north. Seas building 4-5 ft near shore. Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Wed-Sat...Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to continue to strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25-30 kts Wed overnight, strengthening further 30-35kts (potentially 40kts for some) during Thu with seas building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and gradually decreasing into Fri night with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases below 15 kts and this will allow seas to gradually fall below 5 ft offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 89 77 88 / 0 40 70 90 MCO 76 90 77 88 / 10 60 70 90 MLB 79 89 78 90 / 30 60 70 80 VRB 78 89 77 91 / 30 70 80 70 LEE 76 90 76 86 / 0 50 70 90 SFB 76 89 77 87 / 0 50 70 90 ORL 77 90 77 88 / 0 60 70 90 FPR 78 89 77 91 / 30 70 80 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154- 159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Weitlich